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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 4 - 9)

Name: Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 4 - 9)
End: 2026-05-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$100.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 4 - 9)

Vol

$100.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $100.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $100.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 4?	Poly	74%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 6?	Poly	50%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 5?	Poly	50%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 7?	Poly	50%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 8?	Poly	49%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?	Poly	42%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$100.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be suf

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 4 - 9)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 9, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be suf

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $100
* **Total Liquidity:** $256
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 6?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 8?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 5?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 7?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 9?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics