GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?

Name: How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
End: 2026-09-15T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$713.99

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?

Vol

$713.99

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $713.99

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $713.99

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will there be 0-20 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be 0-20 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?	Poly	47%
Will there be 101-150 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?	Poly	41%
Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?	Poly	22%
Will there be 61-100 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?	Poly	14%
Will there be 151+ all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$713.99

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records. The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 15, 2026 (10 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records. 

The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records. 

The Timescale will be All-Time Records"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $714
* **Total Liquidity:** $227
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be 0-20 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 15, 2026): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be 21-60 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 15, 2026): Vol $193
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be 61-100 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 15, 2026): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be 101-150 all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 15, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be 151+  all-time high temperature records broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 15, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate