GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

Name: Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
End: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$26.48K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

Vol

$26.48K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $26.48K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.48K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	40%
Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	36%
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	18%
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	9%
Will the Liberals (L) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$26.48K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or m

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (8 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or m

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $205.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $584
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $655
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Moderate Party (M) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $641
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Liberals (L) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $628
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $642
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics