$168.00
1
5
$168.00
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 2 at 10:00PM ET: If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the Sharks win, the market will resolve to "Sharks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal
The market tracking the total goals in the upcoming Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks game sees the outcome as essentially a coin flip. The current probability suggests a roughly 55% chance that the game will see more than 4.5 total goals scored. This means traders collectively give a slight edge to a higher-scoring game, but with very low confidence. The small amount of money wagered indicates this is a niche market with limited consensus.
Two main factors explain these nearly even odds. First, the teams are at opposite ends of the NHL standings, which creates a mixed picture for scoring. The Maple Leafs have one of the league's most powerful offenses, led by stars like Auston Matthews, who is chasing 70 goals this season. They consistently create high-scoring games. The Sharks, however, have the league's worst record and one of its weakest defenses, often allowing many goals.
Second, the "over/under" line set by sportsbooks for this game is typically 6.5 goals, which is much higher than the 4.5 line in this prediction market. This large gap suggests the prediction market question might be seen as an unusual or less meaningful benchmark, so traders aren't strongly convinced it will hit one way or the other. The market is essentially saying that with Toronto's firepower against San Jose's poor defense, going over a very low bar of 4.5 goals is only slightly more likely than not.
The key event is the game itself on Tuesday, April 2, at 10:00 p.m. ET. The only development that could shift predictions before then would be a major lineup announcement, such as a key player being ruled out. For example, if Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews were declared inactive, the probability of a lower-scoring game would likely increase. Otherwise, the market will resolve shortly after the final buzzer.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for major, high-volume sporting events like championship winners. For specific prop bets like total goals in a single game, their accuracy is decent but less definitive. These niche markets with little money wagered, like this one, should be viewed with more skepticism. They represent a thin slice of collective opinion rather than a deep, well-tested forecast. The unusual 4.5 goal line also makes this a less common prediction to track, so there's less historical data on its accuracy.
The prediction market for the April 2nd NHL game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks shows a slight edge for a high-scoring contest. The primary market, "Maple Leafs vs. Sharks: Over/Under 4.5," is priced at 55% for the "Over." This indicates a modest 55% probability that the combined final score will exceed 4.5 goals. The market is essentially a coin flip with a minor tilt, reflecting significant uncertainty. Trading volume is negligible, with $0 in active liquidity across five related markets, meaning these prices are highly preliminary and not backed by significant capital.
The 55% probability for the Over is a direct reflection of the teams' defensive reputations this season. The San Jose Sharks have consistently ranked among the league's worst defensive teams, frequently allowing five or more goals in games. Their goals-against average is a primary driver for Over bets in their matchups. Conversely, the Toronto Maple Leafs possess one of the NHL's most potent offenses, led by elite scorers like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, who are capable of exploiting weak defensive structures. However, the probability is not higher because Toronto's own defensive play can be inconsistent, and the Sharks' anemic offense often fails to contribute the goals needed to push a total Over. The market is pricing in a likely scenario where Toronto scores 4 or 5 goals, but San Jose may only add 0 or 1.
These odds will see major movement once the starting goaltenders are confirmed, typically on the morning of the game. If the Sharks start a backup goaltender or if Toronto's Ilya Samsonov, who has struggled at times, is in net, the probability for the Over could jump significantly. The opposite is also true. A confirmed start for a hot goalie or a key defensive injury for either side will shift the line. The current thin liquidity means any actual betting interest closer to game time will cause sharp price swings. The market's view is a baseline that assumes standard conditions, but NHL goalie announcements routinely override these preliminary assessments.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms removes an opportunity for cross-exchange arbitrage and suggests this is a niche sports derivative. The isolated, low-liquidity trading environment means the current 55% price is more of a placeholder than a confident consensus. Bettors should expect this line to become more efficient and volatile as game day approaches and capital enters the market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of a regular season National Hockey League game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the San Jose Sharks, scheduled for April 2 at 10:00 PM Eastern Time. The market will resolve based on the official game result, including overtime and shootouts. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a perennial playoff contender from the Atlantic Division, while the San Jose Sharks are a rebuilding team in the Pacific Division. This late-season matchup presents a classic clash between a team with Stanley Cup aspirations and one focused on developing young talent and improving draft position. The game is part of the NHL's 2023-24 regular season schedule, which concludes on April 18. People are interested in this market because it allows them to speculate on the result of a specific professional hockey game. The disparity in team quality and the timing of the game late in the season, when playoff seeding and draft lottery odds are factors, add layers of complexity to the prediction. Bettors and fans analyze team form, injuries, and historical performance to inform their positions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks have been NHL members since 1967 and 1991, respectively. They have met 72 times in the regular season through the 2022-23 season, with Toronto holding a 35-28-9 advantage in the all-time series. The teams have never met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as they are in separate conferences. Historically, the Sharks experienced their greatest success from 2004 to 2019, making the playoffs in 14 of 15 seasons and reaching the Stanley Cup Final in 2016, where they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Maple Leafs' history is defined by an extended championship drought; they have not won the Stanley Cup since 1967, the longest active drought in the NHL. In recent seasons, the Maple Leafs have been a dominant regular season team but have struggled to advance past the first round of the playoffs, breaking that streak only in 2023. The Sharks entered a pronounced rebuild beginning in the 2022-23 season, trading established stars like Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier to accumulate draft picks and prospects. This game represents a meeting of two franchises at very different competitive stages.
For the Maple Leafs, every game impacts their seeding for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Securing home-ice advantage in the first round or competing for the Atlantic Division title could be influenced by results against weaker opponents like the Sharks. For the Sharks, the outcome influences their position in the draft lottery for the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, where consensus top prospect Macklin Celebrini is available. A loss improves their odds of securing the first overall pick. Beyond the teams, the result has financial implications for sportsbooks and prediction market participants who have staked real money on the outcome. The game is also a data point for analysts evaluating team performance, player statistics, and coaching strategies late in the season. For fans, it is an entertainment product, but for the organizations, it is part of the larger calculus of building a contender or accumulating assets for the future.
As of late March 2024, the Toronto Maple Leafs are securely in a playoff position in the Eastern Conference, battling for seeding in the Atlantic Division. The San Jose Sharks have been eliminated from playoff contention for several weeks and own the worst record in the league. The Sharks recently ended a record-tying 13-game home losing streak with a win over the St. Louis Blues on March 23. The Maple Leafs are dealing with injuries, including to goaltender Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Timothy Liljegren, though their core offensive stars remain healthy. The game is scheduled to be played at the SAP Center in San Jose, California.
The game is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM Eastern Time (7:00 PM Pacific Time) on Tuesday, April 2, 2024. It will be played at the SAP Center in San Jose.
The broadcast information depends on regional sports networks. In Canada, the game is likely to be broadcast on Sportsnet or TSN. In the San Jose market, it will be on NBC Sports California. National broadcast schedules are typically confirmed closer to the game date.
Based on season records and team strength, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a heavy favorite. Sportsbooks typically list Toronto with a moneyline around -400 or higher, implying an approximately 80% implied probability of victory.
The teams last played on November 9, 2023, in Toronto. The Maple Leafs won decisively by a score of 10-1. Auston Matthews scored two goals in that victory.
Yes, the San Jose Sharks were mathematically eliminated from 2024 Stanley Cup Playoff contention in early March. They have the lowest point total in the NHL.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/OoTTyl" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Maple Leafs vs. Sharks"></iframe>