Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
Total Volume
$92.15K
Events
1
Markets
1
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $92.15K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $92.15K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
100%
Top Probability
$92.15K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between UC Santa Barbara Gauchos and UC Irvine Anteaters on February 28 at 10:30 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets show traders are completely certain about the outcome of this college basketball game. The market gives a 100% probability to the event "UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Irvine Anteaters." In simple terms, this means traders believe it is guaranteed that this specific game will be played between these two teams. This isn't a bet on who will win, but a bet that the game itself will happen as scheduled.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The total certainty stems from how this specific prediction market is designed. The event description states the market will resolve based on whether the game is completed, not on the final score. If the game is played, the "Yes" shares pay out. The market also has clear rules for cancellations, resolving 50-50 if no makeup game is played. Traders have likely pushed the probability to 100% because the game is scheduled for tonight and there are no public signs of postponement, like severe weather or team health crises. College basketball games at this stage of the season are typically played as planned unless extraordinary circumstances intervene.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The only event that matters is the scheduled tip-off time: 10:30 PM ET on February 28. If the game begins at or near that time, the market will resolve to "Yes." The only thing that could change the prediction now is an official announcement from the universities or the Big West Conference stating the game is postponed or canceled before it starts. Barring that, the outcome is effectively locked in.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For straightforward, binary events like "Will this scheduled game be played?", prediction markets are typically very reliable, especially when the event is hours away. The 100% probability indicates traders see no ambiguity or risk of cancellation. The main limitation here isn't forecasting accuracy, but market design. This market tracks the occurrence of the game, not the sporting result, which is a much less common and less speculative prediction. For this type of administrative event, the market is essentially confirming public information that the game is on.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market on Polymarket shows a 100% probability that the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos will defeat the UC Irvine Anteaters. This price indicates the market views the outcome as a certainty. However, the event description confirms the game was scheduled for February 28, and the market is now in a state of imminent or past-due resolution. The 100% price is not a prediction of athletic performance. It is the market's final settlement price based on the known result of the game that has already occurred. With $92,000 in volume, this was a moderately active market that has now concluded.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The decisive 100% price is driven by one factor: the game has been played and the result is publicly known. Prediction markets for sports events function as real-time forecasting tools up until the event concludes. Once the final whistle blows and the score is verified, markets immediately resolve to 100% for the winning side or specific outcome. The thin liquidity noted is typical for a market that has resolved. No new trading occurs because the uncertainty is eliminated. The background for this specific matchup is a Big West Conference game. Historically, UC Irvine has been a dominant force in the conference, while UC Santa Barbara has been a strong contender. The actual game result, which the market has incorporated, overrides any pre-game analysis or power rankings.
What Could Change These Odds
Nothing can change these odds. The event's outcome is settled. The market rules specify conditions for postponement or cancellation, but neither applies here as the game was completed. For researchers, this settled market is now a historical data point. It can be used to analyze the accuracy of pre-game betting lines versus prediction market prices or to study trading patterns and liquidity decay as a live event concludes. The primary lesson is that a 100% price on a real-world event market, after the scheduled time, almost always reflects a settled result, not a forecasting anomaly.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.