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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap

Name: Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$295.30K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap

Vol

$295.30K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $295.30K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $295.30K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Poly	94%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	3%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	2%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	1%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?	Poly	1%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$295.30K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $295.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.5K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 28.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $44.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $48.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $104.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $12.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $54.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $17.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance