Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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$923.52

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Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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$923.52

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Volume DistributionTotal: $923.52

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10 markets tracked

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	94%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	85%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	67%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	44%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	25%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	3%

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97%

Top Probability

$923.52

Volume

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Dan S. Sullivan (Incumbent) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary resul

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Dan S. Sullivan (Incumbent)

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary resul

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 36% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $924
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $903
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Volume$923.52

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KALSHI

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 36% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷

KALSHI

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 38% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷

KALSHI

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷

KALSHI

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 42% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷

KALSHI

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷

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Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

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Events (1)

Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (10)

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

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Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

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