What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets estimate a roughly 19 in 20 chance that SpaceX will conduct 11 or more orbital launches in February 2026. This is an extremely high level of confidence from traders. The market is essentially treating a double-digit launch month as a near certainty, with the real question being how high above 11 the final count will go.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The high confidence stems from SpaceX's established launch cadence. In 2024, the company averaged over 10 launches per month, setting a global record. This pace is powered by two key factors. First, the workhorse Falcon 9 rocket is designed for rapid reuse, with some booster stages flying 20 or more times. Second, SpaceX has its own massive constellation of Starlink internet satellites to launch, which provides a reliable, internal customer base that fills its manifest alongside commercial and government missions.

The prediction for February 2026 assumes this operational rhythm not only continues but accelerates slightly. It reflects a belief that technical and logistical processes at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base will be smooth, with no major delays from weather or vehicle inspections.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main factor to watch is the launch rate in the weeks leading up to February 2026. A series of successful launches in January would reinforce the high odds. Conversely, any significant launch scrub or standdown for a Falcon 9 investigation in late January could signal potential delays that might spill into February.

Specific dates are less important than the overall tempo. Watch for announcements from SpaceX confirming two launches in a single week, which is now routine, or even three. The company's public launch schedule, updated regularly on its website, will provide the clearest signal of whether it is on track to meet this forecast.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting outcomes based on steady, observable trends like corporate operational tempo. They have been accurate in similar "count-based" markets, such as those tracking rocket launch totals in a given year.

The main limitation here is the potential for unforeseen disruption. A launch failure or major technical issue with the Falcon 9 fleet would immediately and drastically change the forecast. These markets are good at modeling a "business as usual" scenario, but they cannot predict random accidents or anomalies. The high probability reflects the strong belief that such a disruptive event is unlikely in that specific one-month window.