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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 68% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction markets currently assign a 68% probability that Hyperliquid ($HYPE) will be listed on Coinbase before 2027. This price, translating to a roughly 2-in-3 chance, indicates the market views a listing as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The market is trading with thin liquidity, with only $2,000 in volume, meaning current prices could be more volatile and less efficient than highly liquid markets.
The moderately confident pricing reflects two primary dynamics. First, Hyperliquid has established itself as a leading native perpetual futures decentralized exchange (DEX) on its own Layer 1, gaining notable traction and volume in the competitive DeFi derivatives space. Coinbase has a demonstrated history of listing prominent native tokens from key DeFi sectors, especially those with substantial user bases and technical differentiation. Second, the extended timeframe until the end of 2026 provides a long runway for the Hyperliquid ecosystem to mature and for regulatory clarity to potentially improve, both of which are positive catalysts for a major exchange listing.
The primary near-term catalyst for higher odds would be a formal application by the Hyperliquid Foundation or team for a Coinbase listing, or inclusion on Coinbase's roadmap. Conversely, the odds could drop significantly if regulatory pressure increases on trading platforms listing newer altcoins or if Hyperliquid's growth and volume stagnate relative to competitors. A key date to watch is any future "Coinbase Asset Hub" announcement that might include $HYPE in its evaluation pipeline. The thin market liquidity also means that any credible rumor or news could cause sharp price swings in either direction.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$1.90K
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This prediction market addresses whether Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, will achieve listing on Coinbase's spot exchange by the end of 2026. Hyperliquid is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on its own Layer 1 blockchain, designed for high performance and low transaction costs. The question of a Coinbase listing is significant because it represents a major milestone for any cryptocurrency, providing access to a vast user base of over 100 million verified users and institutional clients, which can dramatically increase liquidity, visibility, and perceived legitimacy. The market resolves based on official Coinbase announcements or a consensus of credible reporting. Interest in this topic stems from the competitive landscape of decentralized exchanges (DEXs), where Hyperliquid has positioned itself as a challenger to platforms like dYdX and GMX, and the broader narrative of which DeFi-native tokens gain acceptance on top-tier centralized exchanges. Recent developments include Hyperliquid's mainnet launch in early 2024 and the distribution of its HYPE token via an airdrop to early users, which has fueled speculation about its next steps toward broader market integration.
The path for a decentralized exchange token to list on a major centralized platform has historical precedents. A key example is dYdX, whose DEX token was listed on Coinbase in September 2021, following the growth of its perpetual swaps trading platform. This listing was seen as a validation of the DeFi sector's maturity. Similarly, GMX, another perpetuals DEX on Arbitrum and Avalanche, gained listings on major exchanges like Binance in 2022, often following significant growth in total value locked (TVL) and trading volume. These precedents establish a pattern where a DEX first proves product-market fit and governance stability in a decentralized environment before attracting attention from top-tier centralized exchanges (CEXs). The relationship between DEXs and CEXs has evolved from pure competition to a more symbiotic one, where CEXs list successful DEX tokens to cater to client demand. The regulatory landscape, particularly the SEC's increased scrutiny of crypto assets as securities since 2023, has also become a critical historical factor, making legal compliance a paramount concern for any Coinbase listing decision.
A Coinbase listing for HYPE would signal a significant maturation point for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and for decentralized derivatives trading as a whole. It would provide millions of retail and institutional investors with a regulated, familiar on-ramp to gain exposure to the protocol's growth, potentially funneling substantial new capital and users into the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. This could accelerate the mainstream adoption of non-custodial trading platforms. Conversely, a failure to secure a major listing could reinforce the perception of a high barrier between innovative DeFi protocols and the traditional, regulated financial gateway that Coinbase represents. The outcome has implications for token holders, as exchange listings are often correlated with increased liquidity and price discovery, and for the competitive dynamics among Layer 1 blockchains vying to host the dominant financial applications of the future.
As of late 2024, Hyperliquid's HYPE token is not listed on Coinbase. The token is trading on several other centralized and decentralized exchanges following its airdrop. The Hyperliquid protocol continues to onboard users and develop its ecosystem. The Coinbase asset listing team operates an ongoing review process, but there has been no public indication or application status regarding HYPE. Market participants are monitoring Hyperliquid's trading volumes, governance activity, and any public statements from either entity for clues about a potential future listing application.
Coinbase evaluates assets based on a digital asset framework that includes factors like security, compliance with laws, project health, and market demand. The process involves legal, security, and technical reviews by internal teams before a final decision is made by a listing committee.
Historically, the announcement of a Coinbase listing has often led to a short-term price increase due to increased accessibility, visibility, and perceived legitimacy. The long-term price impact depends on broader market conditions and the underlying project's fundamentals.
While both offer perpetual futures trading, Hyperliquid operates on its own custom-built Layer 1 blockchain designed for speed, whereas dYdX v4 runs on its own Cosmos-based appchain. This architectural difference aims to give Hyperliquid control over its entire stack for optimization.
A DAO can certainly vote to allocate treasury funds to initiatives that could support a listing, such as legal work or business development efforts. However, the final listing decision rests solely with Coinbase's internal committee based on their independent criteria.
Yes, Coinbase has listed tokens from major decentralized exchanges, including dYdX (DYDX) and Uniswap (UNI). These precedents show that Coinbase is willing to list governance tokens from established DeFi protocols that meet its standards.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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