This prediction market addresses whether Donald Trump will face impeachment during his presidential term ending January 20, 2029. Impeachment is the formal process by which the U.S. House of Representatives charges a federal official with 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors,' as defined in Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution. A successful impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House, followed by a trial in the Senate where a two-thirds supermajority is needed for conviction and removal from office. This market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if an impeachment resolution against President Trump passes the House while he is in office before the end of his term. The topic has gained significant attention due to the unprecedented nature of Trump's political career, which included one prior impeachment during his first term in 2019, and the polarized political climate surrounding his 2024 election and subsequent presidency. Interest stems from ongoing legal and political controversies, historical precedent, and the potential for constitutional crisis, making it a focal point for political analysts, investors, and the public monitoring the stability and norms of American governance.

Historical Context

The impeachment of a U.S. president is a rare constitutional mechanism used only four times in history. Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 over Reconstruction disputes, surviving removal by one Senate vote. Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 for perjury and obstruction of justice related to the Monica Lewinsky scandal, but the Senate acquitted him. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid almost certain impeachment over the Watergate scandal. Donald Trump's first impeachment on December 18, 2019, focused on allegations he pressured Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, resulting in a House vote largely along party lines (230-197 for abuse of power, 229-198 for obstruction). The Senate acquitted him on February 5, 2020, with a 52-48 vote against removal on the first article. His second impeachment on January 13, 2021, charged incitement of insurrection after the Capitol riot, passing the House 232-197 with 10 Republican votes. The Senate trial ended on February 13, 2021, with a 57-43 vote for conviction, falling 10 votes short of the two-thirds threshold. These precedents show impeachment is intensely partisan, with no president ever removed by the Senate, setting a high bar for the current prediction.

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