$79.32K
1
7
$79.32K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the vote share Luís Marques Mendes wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is ma
Prediction markets currently price a 58% probability that Luís Marques Mendes will win less than 16% of the vote in the first round of Portugal's presidential election. This suggests the market consensus leans toward a modest performance for the center-right candidate, viewing a sub-16% share as more likely than not. However, with the "Yes" share trading at 58¢ and the "No" at 42¢, the market remains highly uncertain, indicating a tight race around this critical threshold. The thin liquidity, with only $79,000 in total volume, means prices could be volatile as new information emerges.
Two primary factors are shaping these odds. First, the structural advantage of the incumbent President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is broadly popular and has historically secured large first-round majorities, compresses the available vote share for all challengers. Mendes, while a recognizable political figure and former PSD leader, is competing within a crowded field for the anti-incumbent or center-right vote. Second, recent polling, though sparse for an election over a year away, consistently shows Mendes polling in the mid-teens, placing him directly on the cusp of this 16% market bracket. This polling reality is directly reflected in the near-even market split.
The key catalyst will be the final pre-election polling released in the week before the January 18, 2026 vote. A sustained polling trend showing Mendes breaking firmly above 17% could rapidly shift the market toward the "No" (above 16%) outcome. Conversely, any consolidation of support behind a rival center-right candidate or a surge in turnout for left-wing candidates could push his projected share lower. Given the low-volume trading, the market is particularly susceptible to sharp moves based on late-breaking news or a final influential poll. The official election results will, of course, be the definitive resolver.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the expected vote share for Luís Marques Mendes in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election scheduled for January 18, 2026. The market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote Mendes receives, with specific rules for tie-breaking scenarios and recounts. Presidential elections in Portugal are direct, popular votes where candidates must secure an absolute majority (over 50%) to win in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, a second round is held between the top two contenders. Luís Marques Mendes, a prominent center-right politician and former leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is considered a potential major candidate, making his projected performance a key indicator of the political landscape. Interest in this market stems from its function as a collective forecasting tool, aggregating diverse opinions on electoral outcomes based on polling data, political analysis, and shifting public sentiment in the lead-up to the vote. The result will offer insights into the strength of the center-right bloc and the potential for a first-round victory versus a runoff scenario.
Portuguese presidential elections have been held under the current constitution since 1976, following the Carnation Revolution. The role is largely ceremonial but holds significant reserve powers and serves as a key arbiter in political crises. Historically, first-round victories are rare, requiring a candidate to capture a broad national consensus. The last candidate to win in the first round was Mário Soares in 1986, who won with 51.18% of the vote. Since then, every election has proceeded to a second round, highlighting the difficulty of achieving an absolute majority in a fragmented multi-party system. The 2021 election saw the incumbent, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, win re-election in the first round with 60.70%, a modern anomaly attributed to his immense personal popularity and a fragmented opposition. This historical precedent is crucial for understanding the Mendes market, as it sets a very high bar for a first-round victory. The performance of PSD candidates in recent first rounds provides further context. In 2016, the PSD-supported candidate, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, won 52.00% in the first round. However, in 2011, the PSD candidate, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, won only 22.88% in the first round before winning the runoff, demonstrating significant variability based on political climate and candidate appeal.
The vote share for Luís Marques Mendes is a critical barometer for the stability and direction of Portuguese politics. A strong first-round showing, particularly one approaching or exceeding 50%, would signal a robust mandate for the center-right and potentially reduce political uncertainty by avoiding a protracted second-round campaign. It could strengthen the hand of a PSD-led government in parliament and influence policy agendas, particularly regarding fiscal management and EU relations. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected share, especially if below 40%, would indicate a fragmented right-wing electorate and likely necessitate complex coalition-building for a second round, increasing political volatility. Beyond the immediate political ramifications, the outcome influences investor confidence and economic forecasting. A clear electoral signal is often viewed favorably by markets, potentially affecting sovereign bond yields and investment flows into Portugal. Socially, the result will be interpreted as a public verdict on the post-2024 political era and the appeal of traditional party structures versus newer, more populist movements, with implications for the broader European political landscape.
As of late 2024, the presidential election campaign is in its early, informal stages. No candidates have officially been declared, though several figures, including Luís Marques Mendes, are widely discussed as likely contenders. Political parties are engaged in internal deliberations about their strategies. The center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) is assessing its options following its victory in the 2024 legislative elections, while the Socialist Party (PS) is navigating a leadership transition. Polling data specific to a hypothetical presidential matchup is sparse and preliminary, but general political surveys show a fragmented electorate. The political landscape is defined by the rise of the Chega party and the search for a successor to the highly popular President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
The next presidential election in Portugal is scheduled for January 18, 2026. If no candidate wins an absolute majority in that first round, a second round between the top two candidates will be held on February 8, 2026.
Luís Marques Mendes is a Portuguese lawyer and politician from the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). He served as the party's leader from 2005 to 2007 and held the position of Minister of Parliamentary Affairs. He is currently considered a potential candidate for the 2026 presidential election.
The President of Portugal is elected by direct universal suffrage for a five-year term. To win in the first round, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of valid votes (over 50%). If no candidate achieves this, a second round is held two weeks later between the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round.
The Portuguese President is the head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The role is largely ceremonial but holds important reserve powers, including the ability to dissolve parliament, appoint the Prime Minister, and veto legislation. The president also serves as a key mediator in political crises.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 58% |
| Poly | 16% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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