Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Core goods CPI MoM in September

Total Volume

$12.53

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Core goods CPI MoM in September

Vol

$12.53

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $12.53

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.53

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?	Kalshi	88%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	50%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?	Kalshi	50%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	50%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?	Kalshi	50%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.1%?	Kalshi	50%
Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$12.53

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, CPI-U, U.S. city average, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Resolution uses the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for September 2026 published in the first BLS CPI release reporting

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Core goods CPI MoM in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, CPI-U, U.S. city average, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Resolution uses the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for September 2026 published in the first BLS CPI release reporting

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 

0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Core goods CPI MoM in September

Volume$12.53

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHISports

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.

KALSHI

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHISports

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S

KALSHI

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHISports

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S

KALSHI

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHISports

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S

KALSHI

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHISports

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

55¢

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Core goods CPI MoM in September

Core goods CPI MoM in September

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Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Core goods CPI MoM in September

Markets (7)

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

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Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Core goods CPI MoM in September

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

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