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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Team WE in the LPL Group Perseverance, scheduled for January 25 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Team WE. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will reso
Prediction markets give Team WE about a 70% chance to win this League of Legends match. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe Team WE has roughly a 2 in 3 chance of victory. This shows a clear, though not overwhelming, confidence in Team WE. The market sees Ninjas in Pyjamas as the underdog, with about a 30% chance, or a 1 in 3 shot at an upset.
Two main factors explain these odds. First is the difference in league prestige. Team WE competes in China's LPL, widely considered the strongest and most competitive League of Legends region in the world over the last few years. Ninjas in Pyjamas, while a historic name, currently plays in Europe's second-tier regional league (the NLC), which is a significant step down in competition level.
Second, recent performance matters. This match is part of the "LPL Group Perseverance" event, a preseason tournament where LPL teams often face international opponents. Markets are likely weighing the general strength and resources of a top-tier LPL organization against a team from a less dominant region. Historical context also plays a role. LPL teams have consistently performed well against non-top-tier international competition, which builds confidence in Team WE's position as the favorite.
The main event is the match itself, scheduled for January 25 at 4:00 AM ET. Any last-minute roster changes or announcements about player health could shift predictions slightly. Once the match begins, the draft phase, where teams select their champions, will provide the first real-time signal. A highly favorable draft for Ninjas in Pyjamas could make the match look more competitive early on. Otherwise, the result will be known within a few hours of the start time.
For professional sports and esports matches, prediction markets are often quite accurate. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans and bettors who follow team form, player skill, and strategic trends. However, their reliability isn't perfect. Esports are known for occasional unpredictable upsets, and preseason matches can sometimes feature experimental strategies or relaxed play. The odds reflect the most likely outcome based on available information, but the inherent uncertainty of any single game remains.
Prediction markets on Polymarket price a Team WE victory at 80 cents, implying an 80% probability they win this best-of-three match. Ninjas in Pyjamas trades at 20 cents, a 20% win probability. This heavy skew shows the market views Team WE as a clear favorite. The substantial $970,000 in trading volume confirms strong interest and provides solid liquidity for these odds.
The pricing reflects Team WE's established position in China's League of Legends Pro League (LPL) against Ninjas in Pyjamas' (NIP) inconsistent form. Team WE finished the 2023 Summer Split in 5th place and made a regional finals appearance, demonstrating a core competitive level. NIP, while sometimes capable of upsets, ended the same split in 11th place with a negative record. Historical head-to-head data in 2023 also favors Team WE, who won both of their regular season series against NIP. The market is effectively pricing NIP's roster volatility and weaker recent results against WE's more stable, playoff-caliber baseline.
A major odds shift would require NIP outperforming their recent history. Their path to an upset relies heavily on individual player form, particularly the performance of star mid-laner Rookie. If Rookie dominates his lane matchup and NIP's bot lane avoids early deficits, they could win a game and create momentum. Conversely, these odds could solidify further if pre-match analysis or scrimmage rumors suggest Team WE is in strong form. The match is scheduled for January 25 at 4:00 AM ET, so any last-minute roster changes or champion meta shifts revealed in earlier LPL matches that day could cause final pre-match volatility.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms prevents cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. All market sentiment and liquidity are concentrated in this single contract, making the 80/20 price split the definitive consensus view.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$970.32K
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This prediction market concerns a professional League of Legends match in the 2024 LPL Spring Season. The match is a best-of-three series between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Team WE, scheduled for January 25 at 4:00 AM Eastern Time. It is part of the LPL's Group Perseverance stage, a competitive bracket designed to determine final placements in the regular season. The market resolves based on which organization wins the series. Ninjas in Pyjamas, often abbreviated as NIP, is a European esports organization that entered the Chinese League of Legends Pro League by acquiring the former Victory Five roster in 2023. Team WE is one of the LPL's founding and most storied franchises, dating back to 2011. This match is significant as both teams are competing for a stronger position in the group stage, which influences their path through the playoffs and their chances to qualify for international events later in the year. Interest stems from the clash between a rebranded international organization and a historic domestic team, with implications for mid-table standings in one of the world's most competitive League of Legends regions.
Team WE has one of the longest histories in Chinese League of Legends. The organization was a founding member of the LPL in 2013 and won the inaugural LPL Spring Split in 2013. They also won the IPL5 World Championship in 2012, a major international title before the modern World Championship era. However, the team experienced a significant competitive decline from 2018 through 2021, often finishing in the bottom half of the LPL standings. A rebuild around younger players and the acquisition of veterans like Hope in 2023 helped them return to playoff contention. Ninjas in Pyjamas' history in the LPL is much shorter. The Swedish organization entered the Chinese league in December 2022 by acquiring the LPL slot and roster of Victory Five. That roster, which included Shanji and Aki, had just finished in the top six at the 2022 World Championship. NIP rebranded the team for the 2023 season, retaining the core players and adding star mid laner Rookie. The two teams have faced each other four times in the LPL since NIP's entry, with Team WE holding a 3-1 series record in those meetings according to Leaguepedia data. Their most recent match was a 2-0 victory for Team WE during the 2023 LPL Summer Season regular stage.
The result of this match has direct consequences for both teams' trajectories in the 2024 competitive season. A win improves a team's record in the Group Perseverance stage, which determines seeding for the subsequent playoff bracket. Higher playoff seeding leads to more favorable matchups and a better chance to qualify for the LPL Spring Playoffs finals. Qualification for the Mid-Season Invitational, the first major international tournament of the year, is on the line for the LPL's top performers. For the organizations, consistent playoff appearances and international qualifications are vital for securing sponsorship revenue, attracting fan support, and increasing the valuation of their LPL franchise slots. For players, performance in regular season matches like this one influences their market value for future contracts and their prospects for selection to the Chinese national team for events like the Asian Games. The match also represents a test of whether Team WE's historical legacy can withstand the challenge from a team like NIP, which combines domestic talent with international organizational backing.
The 2024 LPL Spring Season regular stage is underway. Both Ninjas in Pyjamas and Team WE are competing in the Group Perseverance bracket after their initial placements in the earlier group stage. Their match on January 25 is a scheduled part of the regular season calendar. Rosters for both teams are set for the Spring Split, with no last-minute changes announced prior to this match. Recent form from the first weeks of the 2024 season will be the most immediate indicator of each team's preparedness, with analysts examining their early-game metrics and draft patterns.
The Group Perseverance is a stage within the LPL Spring and Summer regular seasons. After an initial group stage, teams are divided into tiers based on their records. The Perseverance group consists of middle-tier teams competing to improve their standings for the playoff bracket. All matches are best-of-three series.
Ninjas in Pyjamas officially entered the LPL in December 2022. The organization acquired the LPL slot and the existing roster of Victory Five, which had just competed at the 2022 World Championship. They rebranded and began competing as NIP starting with the 2023 LPL Spring Season.
Yes, Team WE won the very first LPL split, the 2013 LPL Spring Season. They also won a major international tournament, IPL5, in 2012. However, they have not won an LPL title since that inaugural 2013 victory, though they have made several playoff appearances.
Rookie is the mid laner for Ninjas in Pyjamas. He is a South Korean player who has competed in the LPL since 2015. He won the 2018 World Championship as a member of Invictus Gaming and is widely considered one of the greatest mid laners in the history of the LPL due to his longevity and high level of play.
According to the prediction market rules, if the match is delayed beyond 7 days from its scheduled date of January 25 without a winner being determined, the market will resolve as 'Canceled'. This rule is common in prediction markets to handle unforeseen postponements.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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