Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event resolves to the temperature range containing "the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26" [1]. The resolution source is "the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day" [1]. Values are measured to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading such as 9°C is the precision used for settlement [1].
The rules include fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If there is no data for the observation date by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Revisions count only until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:01.845Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a confirmed resolution or the time the temperature was recorded.
The saved event includes 11 bracket markets, all of them included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The "5°C or below" contract shows a Yes price of 0.50, and the "15°C or higher" contract shows 0.49. Each bracket from 6°C through 14°C shows a Yes price of 0.34 [1]. Because these are different outcomes, each price should be read on its own. The Yes prices in this snapshot total 4.05, so they do not form a single probability distribution, and the gap is not an arbitrage signal.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do. It includes no weather forecast, trader count, news, or record of past accuracy. The sample covers all saved markets for this event, but that does not establish that every possible temperature has been listed. Volume is not included, so it cannot indicate liquidity. The provider status is active, but settlement depends on NOAA data that is not in the supplied evidence. If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction [1]. When comparing with other temperature contracts, check the wording and close times first.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the lowest temperature recorded in Qingdao on October 21, 2026. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, measured in whole degrees Celsius on 21 Oct 26 [1]. The rules say the resolution source is the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on that day, taken from NOAA's time series page for the station [1]. The rules include fallback and timing provisions. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data for the observation date is available by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The market resolves once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21 12:00 UTC [1]. The rules also address data errors. If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction [1]. Revisions made within the market's timeframe are considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which changes are not considered [1]. The measurement uses whole degrees Celsius, so a reading such as 9 degrees is the level of precision used for settlement [1]. Several timestamps matter here. The provider observation time for the saved snapshot is 2026-10-19 06:00 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 06:09 UTC the same day [1]. The observation date in the contract, October 21, is after that snapshot, so the temperature has not yet been recorded and the contract has not resolved. Prices shown for these markets describe the saved snapshot only and are not live or executable quotes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single daily figure, the minimum temperature recorded at one airport weather station on one date, as defined by the provider's rules [1]. Because the rules name a specific station, unit, and resolution window, a market's outcome depends on that record rather than on general forecasts or regional conditions. The saved sample includes a set of temperature brackets, including one for 5 degrees Celsius or below, individual single-degree markets from 6 to 14 degrees, and one for 15 degrees or higher [1]. The saved snapshot lists these as 11 markets, all included, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Reported prices are snapshot values, and volume or the number of markets is not a measure of liquidity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which weather data determines the outcome?
The primary source is the lowest reading under the Temp column at NOAA's Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station for the observation day, in whole degrees Celsius [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1].
What happens if no data is available?
If there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Can the published data be corrected after it appears?
If the source publishes clearly erroneous data because of technical or operational error or unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction. If no corrected value appears in that period, the provider may issue a clarification [1]. Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published [1].
Do the prices show the chance that a temperature will occur?
The rules define how a market resolves, but they do not say that prices are verified probabilities. The saved prices are snapshots taken at a specific time and are not executable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
