$303.58
1
12
$303.58
1
12
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the listed team/country that wins the bronze medal for Men’s Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. If it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Men’s Ice Hockey Olympic bronze medal according to the rules of the competition (i.e., the team is eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No.” If the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a low-probability, fragmented field for the 2026 Men's Olympic Ice Hockey bronze medal. On Polymarket, Sweden holds the leading position with a contract price of 37¢, implying just a 37% chance. This indicates the market views Sweden as the most likely candidate from a crowded field, but still sees a bronze medal win as significantly less likely than not. All other national teams, including traditional powers like Canada, the United States, and the Russian Olympic Committee (should it participate), are trading at lower probabilities. The market is characterized by extremely thin liquidity, with negligible trading volume, meaning these odds are highly speculative and not yet established by significant capital.
The primary factor is the profound uncertainty surrounding the 2026 Olympic tournament format and participant eligibility. The NHL’s participation has not been formally confirmed, and its decision will drastically alter the competitive landscape. Sweden’s relative favoritism likely stems from its consistent elite performance in international hockey, including a gold medal at the 2022 IIHF World Championship and a strong pipeline of NHL talent. However, the 37% price reflects severe skepticism. A second key factor is the potential exclusion of Russia and Belarus due to the ongoing International Olympic Committee framework, which would remove a major medal contender and reshuffle odds for all other teams, including Sweden.
The single largest catalyst will be the official announcement regarding NHL player participation, expected by mid-2025. A confirmation would immediately solidify odds for top-tier nations like Canada, the USA, and Sweden, likely causing Sweden’s probability to drop as the field becomes more top-heavy. Conversely, if NHL players do not attend, the tournament becomes far more unpredictable, benefiting European nations with strong domestic leagues, potentially increasing Sweden’s relative odds. The final tournament draw and group composition in late 2025 will also be a major driver, as a difficult path to the semifinals increases the chance of a top team falling into the bronze medal game.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which nation will win the bronze medal in Men's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. The market resolves based on the official result of the bronze medal game, scheduled for February 22, 2026, at the Fiera Milano Rho arena. Interest stems from the unpredictable nature of Olympic hockey, where National Hockey League (NHL) player participation, confirmed for the 2026 Games after an absence in 2018 and 2022, dramatically reshapes competitive dynamics. Unlike the best-on-best World Championships, the Olympics represent a pinnacle event where national pride and legacy are at stake, making the battle for any medal, including bronze, intensely competitive. Recent developments include the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) confirming the tournament format and the NHL and NHL Players' Association finalizing agreements for player release, setting the stage for what many anticipate will be the most competitive Olympic hockey tournament in over a decade. Bettors and analysts are closely monitoring national team preparations, player commitments, and pre-tournament projections to gauge the likely contenders for the podium's third step.
The Olympic men's ice hockey tournament has a storied history defined by geopolitical drama and shifting professional participation. The 'Miracle on Ice' in 1980, where the United States' amateur team defeated the Soviet Union, remains the most iconic moment. For decades, the tournament was dominated by the Soviet Union and later the 'Unified Team', winning eight gold medals between 1956 and 1992. The advent of NHL participation, beginning in 1998 in Nagano, transformed the event into a true best-on-best championship. Canada ended a 50-year gold medal drought in 2002 and has since won three of the five tournaments featuring NHL players (2002, 2010, 2014). The absence of NHL players in 2018 (PyeongChang) and 2022 (Beijing) led to unexpected outcomes. The Olympic Athletes from Russia won gold in 2018, while Finland claimed its first ever Olympic gold in 2022, with Slovakia earning a surprise bronze. The return of NHL stars in 2026 marks a return to the pre-2018 competitive paradigm, but within a landscape where European powers like Sweden and Finland have closed the gap with North American teams.
The bronze medal outcome carries significant weight for national hockey programs and their funding, prestige, and development trajectories. For a nation like Slovakia, a bronze medal in 2022 provided an immense boost to the sport's profile and youth participation at home. For traditional powers like the United States or Russia, failing to secure any medal is seen as a major disappointment that can prompt organizational overhauls. Economically, a medal can enhance the marketability of a nation's players and leagues, influencing sponsorship and broadcasting deals. The result also feeds into broader national narratives during the Olympics, affecting viewership and public engagement with the Games. For the sport globally, a competitive and unpredictable tournament with a dramatic bronze medal game helps maintain ice hockey's relevance on the crowded Olympic stage, ensuring its continued place in the Winter Games program.
As of late 2024, the core framework for the tournament is set. The IIHF has confirmed the participation of the top eight ranked nations (Canada, USA, Finland, Sweden, Czechia, Germany, Switzerland, Slovakia) along with four qualifiers. The NHL, NHLPA, and IIHF have signed a formal agreement allowing player participation. National team management groups are in early stages of roster planning and monitoring player health and performance. No official pre-tournament favorites have been established, but sportsbooks and analysts generally list Canada, USA, Sweden, and Finland as the top tier of contenders. The final tournament schedule and group compositions are expected to be announced in 2025.
The men's ice hockey bronze medal game at the Milano Cortina 2026 Olympics is scheduled for February 22, 2026. It will be played at the Fiera Milano Rho arena, one day before the gold medal game.
Sweden and the former Soviet Union are tied for the most men's hockey bronze medals, each with four. Sweden's most recent bronze was in 2022, while the Soviet Union's last was in 1960.
As of now, the International Olympic Committee has not finalized the conditions for Russian and Belarusian athlete participation in Milano Cortina. Their eligibility, and under what flag they would compete, remains a significant unresolved question that will impact the tournament field.
The 12 teams are divided into two groups for a preliminary round. The top teams advance directly to the quarterfinals, while others play qualification playoff games. From there, it becomes a single-elimination knockout tournament, with the two semifinal losers meeting in the bronze medal game.
Olympic ice hockey follows IIHF rules. If the bronze medal game is tied after regulation, a 10-minute sudden-death overtime period is played. If still tied, the game proceeds to a shootout to determine the winner.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 37% |
 | Poly | 37% |
 | Poly | 36% |
 | Poly | 36% |
 | Poly | 36% |
 | Poly | 35% |
 | Poly | 34% |
 | Poly | 34% |
 | Poly | 34% |
 | Poly | 34% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 4% |
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