Name: Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

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Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?	Poly	37%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Poly	32%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?	Poly	9%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $34.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 21, 2025): Vol $631
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $423
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

26¢

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Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Markets (3)

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?

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Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?

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