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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?

Name: Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.17M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?

Vol

$1.17M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.17M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.17M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Poly	96%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Poly	3%
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$1.17M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.17M
* **Total Liquidity:** $59.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 19.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $37.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $70.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $19.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $27.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $407.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $44.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $13.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $209.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $307.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics