Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket event titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET" in the Crypto category [1]. The source says it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T05:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a resolution record. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z, and our source retrieval occurred at 2026-10-24T10:53:14.482Z [1]. These are past snapshots. The evidence does not establish the market's status at the time of reading, so this summary should not be treated as a current quote.
At observation, the saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep or active the market was.
The sample covers one market from one platform. Coverage shows 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. Because the event is a single contract with two outcomes, there is no comparison across contracts or platforms here. The Up and Down prices are two sides of the same contract and should not be read as separate forecasts.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were at these levels. It does not include a resolution result, news context, or any information about how the price moved after the snapshot. The source states that the market concerns the Chainlink data stream rather than other exchanges or spot markets, so a different ETH price source would not determine this contract's outcome [1]. Users comparing this contract with a similarly titled market elsewhere should check that the wording, data source, and listed close time match before drawing any conclusion.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Ethereum price contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET" in the crypto category. The contract is listed on Polymarket and concerns a 15-minute window ending at 05:15 UTC on October 25, 2026 [1]. Its title identifies the time range, and the listed end time is 2026-10-25T05:15:00.000Z [1]. The contract is binary, with two outcomes named "Up" and "Down" [1]. According to the provider's rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average price across the window and the starting price, not between the price at the end and the price at the start. The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD time-weighted average price data stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract with prices on exchanges should keep that distinction in mind. The provider status at retrieval is recorded as active [1]. The timing here has several separate parts. The provider observation was taken at 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z, the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T10:53:14.506Z, the listed contract end is 2026-10-25T05:15:00.000Z, and the actual resolution is not yet recorded in the supplied material [1]. The observation and retrieval times describe when the provider data was captured, not the present moment.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Ethereum's time-weighted average price over one specific 15-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window, as defined by the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. It is useful for understanding how a short-interval directional contract is defined, because the rule ties the outcome to a particular oracle-style data feed and a particular averaging method rather than to a general market price [1]. Readers should not treat the listed prices as executable quotes or as verified probabilities, since they are snapshots taken at a past provider observation time.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves to Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source does the contract use?
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream. The provider states that other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
When does the contract's listed window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T05:15:00.000Z, which corresponds to the end of the 1:00AM to 1:15AM ET window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.