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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Name: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Vol

$23.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	76%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	22%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	3%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$23.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resol

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resol

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Haza"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.70)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $973
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience