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In 2026 If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly lower than X by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether average regular gasoline prices in Florida will fall below specific price thresholds by December 31, 2026, using data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) as the official resolution source. The market tracks the volatile retail fuel market in Florida, a state with unique economic and geographic factors influencing its gasoline prices. Florida is the third-most populous U.S. state and a major tourism destination, making its fuel prices significant for both residents and its massive visitor economy. The market includes an early close mechanism, meaning it will resolve the morning after AAA data confirms prices have fallen below the specified threshold, adding a layer of timing sensitivity to the prediction. Interest in this topic stems from its direct impact on household budgets, business costs, and broader economic indicators like inflation, with Florida's lack of state gasoline tax adding a distinct layer to its price dynamics compared to other states. Analysts and traders monitor factors including global crude oil prices, refinery output, seasonal tourism demand, hurricane impacts on Gulf Coast infrastructure, and state-specific regulations to forecast where prices might settle.
Florida's gasoline prices have historically been influenced by a combination of national trends and state-specific factors. A significant precedent occurred in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina disrupted Gulf Coast refineries, causing Florida's average gas price to spike to a then-record of $2.70 per gallon, highlighting the state's vulnerability to supply shocks. The modern era of price volatility began in 2008 when the state average first breached $4.00 per gallon, followed by a crash to $1.70 during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused prices to plummet to multi-year lows, with Florida's average hitting $1.77 in April 2020 as demand collapsed. The subsequent recovery saw prices surge to an all-time high of $4.89 per gallon in June 2022, driven by post-pandemic demand and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Florida's price trajectory often diverges from the national average due to its unique supply chain, which relies heavily on Gulf Coast refineries and marine imports, and its lack of a state gasoline tax, which is a fixed 0 cents per gallon compared to the national average state tax of about 31 cents. This tax difference means Florida prices are more sensitive to changes in the base wholesale cost of fuel.
Gasoline prices in Florida are a critical economic indicator with direct consequences for millions. For residents, fuel costs represent a significant portion of household expenses, particularly in a state with limited public transportation options outside major metros. Lower prices effectively function as a tax cut, increasing disposable income and potentially boosting consumer spending in other sectors. For the state's economy, which hosted 137.6 million visitors in 2023, transportation costs affect tourism affordability and the operational budgets of the hospitality and agriculture industries, both major employment sectors. Politically, gasoline prices are a highly visible metric that influences voter sentiment and policy decisions, often prompting legislative responses like temporary tax suspensions. Environmentally, sustained low prices can reduce the economic incentive for consumers to adopt electric vehicles or more fuel-efficient models, potentially slowing progress toward emissions reduction goals in a state particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise.
As of late 2024, Florida's average gasoline price has shown moderate volatility, typically ranging between $3.00 and $3.50 per gallon, influenced by fluctuating crude oil costs and seasonal demand patterns. The market is looking ahead to 2026, with analysts weighing conflicting forces. On one side, potential increases in electric vehicle adoption and improved fuel efficiency could dampen long-term demand. On the other, geopolitical tensions, hurricane risks to Gulf Coast refining, and potential economic growth could apply upward pressure. The key unknown is the trajectory of global oil prices, which will be determined by OPEC+ production decisions, the pace of the global energy transition, and economic conditions in major consuming nations.
The primary factors are the global price of crude oil, which accounts for over 50% of the pump price, refinery production levels especially along the Gulf Coast, seasonal demand spikes during winter tourist season, hurricane disruptions to supply infrastructure, and transportation costs from supply hubs to Florida stations.
Florida lacks a state gasoline tax, unlike most states, making its base price lower. However, its reliance on shipped and piped fuel from the Gulf Coast and occasional marine imports can create supply bottlenecks, especially during hurricane season, leading to temporary price spikes above the national average.
AAA's data is highly accurate and widely trusted, derived from daily surveys of over 5,000 gas stations across Florida. The methodology includes credit card transaction data and direct station surveys, providing a comprehensive and real-time snapshot of the retail market.
Yes, hurricanes can significantly increase prices by disrupting Gulf Coast refinery operations and port closures that halt fuel shipments to Florida. For example, Hurricane Ian in 2022 caused temporary supply shortages and price increases across the state until infrastructure was restored.
While nominal records are less tracked, adjusting for inflation, gasoline was cheapest in the late 1990s. In modern data, the lowest average price in recent decades was approximately $1.77 per gallon in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic demand collapse.
Prediction markets like this one use the official AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report average price for regular gasoline in Florida. The market resolves to 'Yes' if that average is strictly below the specified threshold on December 31, 2026, with an early close triggered the next business morning after AAA confirms the condition has been met.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.50 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 46% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.30 by Dec 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 16% |
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