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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
Vol

PM $298

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Events

1

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Markets

9

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 450k to 475k at 29.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 450k to 475k29.5%
  2. 575k+24.5%
  3. 425k to 450k15.5%
  4. 475k to 500k14.5%
  5. <400k14%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $298

Reported volume ยท provider units

9

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiTech
Tesla total deliveries in 2026

Tesla total deliveries in 2026

K 65.3K contracts
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.55 million total deliveries in 2026?Yes 98.5%
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total deliveries in 2026?Yes 98%
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.6 million total deliveries in 2026?Yes 96.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
Tesla energy deployment in Q4

Tesla energy deployment in Q4

K 6.1K contracts
Will Tesla report Above 8 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 97%
Will Tesla report Above 10 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 88.5%
Will Tesla report Above 12 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 83.5%
+6 moreNext deadline May 2, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027

Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027

K 22.7K contracts
Will Tesla report Above 225000 total deliveries in Q1 2027?Yes 97.5%
Will Tesla report Above 250000 total deliveries in Q1 2027?Yes 97%
Will Tesla report Above 275000 total deliveries in Q1 2027?Yes 97%
+12 moreNext deadline Jul 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiFinancials
Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

K 2.4K contracts
Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 66.5%
Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 62.5%
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 36.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Tesla total production in 2026

Tesla total production in 2026

K 12.8K contracts
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total production in 2026?Yes 98.5%
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.55 million total production in 2026?Yes 97.5%
Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.6 million total production in 2026?Yes 96%
+6 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3

Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3

K 16.7K contracts
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 20 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?Yes 90.5%
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 25 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?Yes 87%
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?Yes 71%
+6 moreNext deadline Feb 17, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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