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$2.95K
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed optio
Prediction markets currently price a 48% probability that the Federal Reserve will make no change to interest rates at its June 2026 policy meeting. This near-coin-flip odds reflects profound uncertainty about the economic path over the next two years. The market assigns a 52% collective probability to various rate move outcomes, including cuts or hikes, indicating no clear consensus on the Fed's direction that far in the future. With only $3,000 in total trading volume, this is a low-liquidity market where prices are more suggestive than definitive.
The primary factor is the extended time horizon. The June 2026 meeting is over 150 days away, encompassing multiple economic data cycles and FOMC meetings. Current market pricing for nearer-term meetings in 2024 and 2025 suggests an expectation for rate cuts, but by mid-2026, the focus shifts to whether the Fed will be on hold, cutting further, or even hiking again to manage a potential economic re-acceleration or persistent inflation. Second, the thin liquidity itself is a key driver. Low trading volume means current prices are more sensitive to individual bets and may not represent a robust consensus, amplifying the appearance of uncertainty.
The odds will solidify as the event approaches and more economic data unfolds. Key near-term catalysts include the Fed's upcoming meetings and inflation reports throughout 2024. If inflation proves stickier than expected, markets may begin pricing a higher probability of rates remaining elevated into 2026. Conversely, signs of a sharper economic slowdown could increase the probability priced for rate cuts by that meeting. The market will likely remain volatile and uncertain until at least late 2025, when the economic picture for mid-2026 comes into clearer focus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Specifically, it resolves based on the change, measured in basis points, of the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level prior to that meeting. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other banks overnight, and it serves as the primary tool for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The FOMC, which meets eight times a year, sets this target range to influence economic activity, employment, and inflation. The June meeting is one of the quarterly meetings that includes a summary of economic projections and a press conference by the Fed Chair, making it a particularly significant event for financial markets. Market participants and economists closely analyze economic data, including inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, in the months leading up to each FOMC meeting to forecast potential rate moves. The anticipation and outcome of these decisions have profound effects on everything from mortgage rates and business loans to currency valuations and stock market performance. Interest in predicting the June 2026 decision stems from its role in shaping the economic landscape for the latter half of the decade, influencing investment strategies, corporate planning, and government fiscal policy.
The Federal Reserve's use of the federal funds rate as its primary policy tool has evolved significantly since the 1970s. Under Chair Paul Volcker in the early 1980s, the Fed famously raised rates to unprecedented levels, with the federal funds rate peaking at nearly 20% in 1981 to break the back of double-digit inflation. This period established the Fed's credibility as an inflation fighter but also triggered a severe recession. The subsequent decades, particularly under Chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, saw a shift toward more transparent communication and a dual mandate focus on maximum employment and price stability. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis marked a pivotal turn, forcing the Fed to cut its policy rate to near zero, a level it maintained for seven years. It then began a slow, gradual hiking cycle from 2015 to 2018, raising rates nine times. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted an emergency cut back to zero in March 2020. The most recent historical chapter began in March 2022, when the Fed, confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, initiated its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. It raised the federal funds rate 11 times over 16 months, lifting the target range from 0-0.25% to 5.25-5.50% by July 2023. This historical arc of dramatic shifts from ultra-low to high rates forms the essential backdrop for understanding any future FOMC decision, including the one scheduled for June 2026.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are among the most consequential economic policy actions in the world. Changes in the federal funds rate ripple through the entire economy, directly influencing the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. A decision to raise, lower, or hold rates steady in June 2026 will immediately affect mortgage rates, auto loans, credit card APRs, and business investment decisions. This, in turn, impacts hiring, consumer spending, and overall economic growth. For the global financial system, the Fed's actions influence capital flows, exchange rates, and the stability of emerging markets, as the U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. The decision also carries significant political weight. The state of the economy in 2026 will influence the political climate, potentially affecting elections and public perception of economic management. For millions of Americans, the outcome dictates the affordability of housing, the returns on savings accounts, and the valuation of retirement portfolios. In essence, the June 2026 FOMC decision is a lever that adjusts the speed and trajectory of the U.S. economy, with direct consequences for financial security, business viability, and national economic health.
As of mid-2024, the Federal Reserve has paused its rate-hiking cycle, maintaining the federal funds rate at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.50% since July 2023. The focus has shifted from how high to raise rates to how long to keep policy restrictive. Inflation, while down significantly from its 2022 peak, remains above the Fed's 2% target. Recent FOMC communications and the March 2024 Summary of Economic Projections indicate committee members expect to begin cutting rates later in 2024, but the pace and endpoint of those cuts are uncertain. The economic path over the next two years, which will determine the June 2026 decision, is highly data-dependent. Markets are closely watching monthly inflation and employment reports for signals about whether the economy is cooling sufficiently to allow for easing, or if persistent inflation might necessitate rates staying higher for longer.
The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of twelve members, the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. They meet eight times a year to set the target for the federal funds rate.
The federal funds rate indirectly influences mortgage rates, particularly the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. While not directly tied, changes in the Fed's policy rate affect the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgage lenders use as a benchmark. When the Fed raises rates, borrowing costs generally rise across the economy, pushing mortgage rates higher.
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). It is the standard unit of measurement for interest rates and bond yields in finance. A change of 25 basis points is equal to a change of 0.25 percentage points.
These terms describe the policy stance of Fed officials. A 'hawk' prioritizes controlling inflation and is more inclined to support raising interest rates or keeping them high. A 'dove' prioritizes maximizing employment and is more inclined to support lowering interest rates or keeping them low to stimulate the economy.
The Fed analyzes a wide range of data, with a primary focus on inflation indicators like the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and labor market indicators like the unemployment rate, job growth, and wage growth. They also monitor GDP growth, consumer spending, business investment, and global economic conditions.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 43% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 0% |
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