Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

Name: OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.53K

Events

Markets

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OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

Vol

$7.53K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.53K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?	Poly	16%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by October 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$7.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (447 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Recursive self-improvement means a capabil"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $786
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech