Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIAI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Total Volume

$1.52K

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Vol

$1.52K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $1.52K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.52K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	71%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	56%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$1.52K

Volume

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2029 If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
**Category:** AI | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2029

If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially impro"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIAI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Volume$1.52K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially impro

KALSHI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially impro

KALSHI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially impro

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

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Events (1)

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Markets (3)

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

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