Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?

Name: GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$904.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?

Vol

$904.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $904.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $904.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Poly	21%
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 15, 2026?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$904.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (gi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $904
* **Total Liquidity:** $319
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $529
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $375
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech