GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

New Hampshire Governor winner?

Name: New Hampshire Governor winner?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$44.53K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

New Hampshire Governor winner?

Vol

$44.53K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.79K

Kalshi

markets · $27.74K

Price Spread

1.3%avg

max 1.5%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $44.53K

38%

62%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	85%	87%	2%
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	15%	14%	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$44.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Hampshire Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.22)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.2% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $17.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

New Hampshire Governor winner?

Volume$27.74K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have wi

Volume$16.79K

Markets2

2 of 2

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POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average85.8%

Polymarket

85.0%

Kalshi+1.5%

86.5%

Difference:1.5%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Hampshire

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rul

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average14.1%

Polymarket+1.2%

14.7%

Kalshi

13.5%

Difference:1.2%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.7¢No 85.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Hampshire

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rul

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Next Market Closes

27d 21h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/PbwGbM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Hampshire Governor winner?"></iframe>

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New Hampshire Governor winner?