Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Name: Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.76K

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Markets

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Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $11.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.76K

100%

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1 market tracked

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$11.76K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional sy

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (120 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** 
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional sy

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

119d 21h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

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Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

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Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)