This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Ohio's 12th congressional district. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called by the market's designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. Ohio's 12th district, currently represented by Republican Troy Balderson, is a politically competitive area that includes parts of central Ohio, such as Delaware County, Licking County, and portions of Franklin and Muskingum counties. The district's composition and voter demographics make it a frequent target for both major parties, often serving as a bellwether for national political trends. Interest in this market stems from its potential to indicate broader shifts in the House of Representatives, where control is often determined by a handful of competitive seats like OH-12. The outcome could influence legislative priorities, committee assignments, and the balance of power in Washington. Political analysts, strategists, and investors monitor such races for insights into voter sentiment, campaign effectiveness, and the national political environment two years into a presidential term.

Historical Context

Ohio's 12th congressional district has a history of competitive elections and partisan shifts. For decades, the district was represented by Republican Bob Ney from 1995 until his resignation in 2006 following a corruption scandal. Democrat Zack Space won the seat in 2006 but lost it to Republican Bob Gibbs in the 2010 Republican wave election. The district's boundaries were significantly altered during Ohio's post-2010 census redistricting, which created a more Republican-leaning seat. Gibbs represented this version of the district until he retired in 2018. The 2018 special election to replace Gibbs became a nationally watched contest between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor. Balderson won by just 1,680 votes, a margin of 0.8%. He won again in the November 2018 general election by 4.2 points. The district's competitiveness was reaffirmed in 2020, when Balderson defeated Democrat Alaina Shearer by only 0.8 points, or roughly 4,000 votes. Following the 2020 census, Ohio lost one congressional seat, triggering another round of redistricting. The Ohio Supreme Court rejected multiple proposed congressional maps in 2022 for violating anti-gerrymandering provisions in the state constitution. The final map used for the 2022 elections, which included OH-12, was adopted by a federal court. This map made the district slightly more favorable to Republicans, and Balderson won re-election in 2022 by 18.5 points. However, the legal battles over redistricting left the long-term boundaries uncertain, setting the stage for potential changes before 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions