
$277.34K
2
20

$277.34K
2
20
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Dec 2026 If X is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by the Social Security Administration. The SSA usually releases this list in May of the following year. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets give Olivia a very strong chance to remain the most popular baby girl name in the United States for 2025. The current odds translate to a roughly 6 in 7 probability. This shows an overwhelming consensus among thousands of traders that the name will hold the top spot for an eighth consecutive year.
Two main factors explain the high confidence. First, Olivia has shown remarkable staying power. It first reached number one in 2019 and has not been challenged since. This kind of dominance is rare. The last name to hold the top spot for so long was Mary in the mid-20th century.
Second, the names trailing Olivia have remained consistent but distant. For the past four years, Emma has been the steady number two, and Amelia has held third place. While these names are popular, their market share has not grown enough to suggest a sudden upset. The data shows a stable hierarchy, and traders see no evidence that this pattern will break in 2025.
The definitive answer will come from the Social Security Administration (SSA). The agency typically releases its official list of the prior year's most popular names in mid-May. For the 2025 names, expect the announcement around May 2026.
Before that official data, the only potential signal would be an unexpected release of preliminary or state-level data from the SSA, which is uncommon. The markets will likely remain stable until the official report is published.
Markets are generally reliable for forecasts based on clear, slow-moving trends, and baby name popularity fits that description. Shifts in the top names happen gradually over years, not suddenly. The SSA's data is also highly trusted and free from ambiguity, which makes for clean market resolution.
The main limitation is that these markets can sometimes be slow to price in a genuine, slow-building change if it's not yet visible in recent data. However, given Olivia's multi-year lead and the consistency of the names behind it, the current high probability seems well-grounded in the existing trend.
Prediction markets are pricing in an 86% probability that Olivia will be the most popular baby girl name in the United States for 2025. This price indicates extreme market confidence. A probability this high suggests traders view the outcome as nearly certain, with only a small allowance for unexpected shifts in naming trends. The market has attracted moderate liquidity, with $275,000 in volume spread across related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The high probability is rooted in a clear historical pattern. Olivia has dominated the Social Security Administration's annual list for five consecutive years, from 2019 through 2023. This kind of sustained popularity is rare. The name's position appears stable because it sits at the intersection of classic tradition and modern sound, appealing to a wide range of parents. No other name has shown consistent strength to challenge it recently. The 2024 data, when released in May 2025, will serve as the final pre-indicator for 2025 trends, and no credible forecast suggests a change at the top.
The primary risk to this consensus is an unforeseen viral or cultural event that suddenly catapults another name into the mainstream. A character in a massively popular 2025 film or television show could inspire a wave of namesakes. However, for a new name to reach the number one spot, it would need to overcome Olivia's massive multi-year lead of thousands of births annually. This makes a sudden overthrow statistically difficult within a single year. The market odds will solidify further upon the release of the 2024 SSA data in May 2025. A sixth consecutive win for Olivia in that dataset would likely push prediction market prices above 90%.
This event is active on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices are tightly aligned, showing no meaningful arbitrage opportunity. The synchronization indicates efficient information sharing between platforms and a unified trader consensus. The high confidence and identical pricing across exchanges reinforce the analysis that Olivia's continued reign is the overwhelming base case for 2025.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the most popular baby girl name in the United States for 2025, as determined by the Social Security Administration (SSA). The SSA compiles its annual list from the millions of Social Security card applications for newborns, making it the definitive national ranking of name popularity. The market resolves based on the official SSA list, typically released in May 2026. Interest in this topic stems from its reflection of broader cultural trends, parental preferences, and the cyclical nature of naming conventions, making it a subject of public fascination and demographic study. The competition for the top spot is often between a small group of names that have dominated recent years, with subtle shifts indicating changing tastes. Predicting the winner involves analyzing multi-year trends, the influence of popular culture, and the gradual decline or resurgence of specific names. The outcome is not merely a trivial fact but a data point that sociologists, marketers, and expectant parents monitor closely. The SSA's methodology, which counts every name registered for a Social Security Number, provides a complete and unbiased dataset, unlike private surveys or limited samples. This makes the annual list a reliable benchmark for understanding American naming habits.
The Social Security Administration has published its baby names list since 1997, with data going back to 1880. This long-term dataset reveals clear historical cycles in naming popularity. For most of the 20th century, a single name would often dominate for a decade or more. Mary was the number one girl's name for an astonishing 64 non-consecutive years between 1880 and 1961. This stability gave way to more rapid turnover in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Since 2000, only three names have held the top spot for girls: Emily (1996-2007), Emma (2008-2013, and again from 2014-2018), and Olivia. Olivia first reached number one in 2019 and has held the position through 2023, marking one of the more sustained reigns in recent memory. The boy's name list has shown similar consolidation, with Liam leading since 2017. This recent pattern of multi-year champions contrasts with the more frequent changes seen in the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting a new era of preference for established, classic names over fleeting fads. The data also shows a significant decline in the market share of the top names. In 1950, the top ten girl names accounted for about 24% of all female births. By 2023, that figure had fallen to around 7%, indicating parents are choosing from a much wider and more diverse set of names than in the past.
The most popular baby name is a cultural indicator that reflects societal values, media influences, and generational identity. Sociologists use this data to track assimilation patterns, the influence of celebrity culture, and shifts in aesthetic preferences. For instance, the rise of names like Isabella and Sophia in the 2000s correlated with popular television and film characters. For businesses, particularly those in childcare, education, and consumer products, knowing trending names helps in marketing, product development, and resource planning. A surge in a particular name can influence demand for personalized items. For parents, the list serves as both inspiration and a cautionary guide. Some actively seek popular names for their child to fit in, while others avoid the top choices to ensure uniqueness. The concentration or diversification of name choices also speaks to broader themes of individualism versus conformity in American society. The data can even have legal and administrative implications, as very common names can lead to identity confusion in databases and official records.
As of the May 2024 release of the 2023 data, Olivia remained the most popular girl's name for the fifth straight year. The names immediately behind it, Emma and Charlotte, have also held their positions for multiple years, creating a stable top tier. Early speculation for 2024 and 2025 names often focuses on whether Olivia can maintain its lead or if a challenger like Charlotte, which has shown consistent growth, will overtake it. Analysts at websites like Nameberry also monitor search traffic and social media discussion for emerging names, though these rarely break into the top positions immediately. The total number of births, which has been declining slightly in recent years, provides the base population for these rankings.
The SSA counts names from all Social Security card applications for newborns. This includes nearly all children born in the United States, as a Social Security Number is required for tax and benefits purposes. The agency tallies names given to five or more babies of each gender to create its public list.
The SSA typically releases its official list for a given year in May of the following year. Therefore, the 2025 list is expected to be published in May 2026. The agency sometimes releases preliminary data or a top 10 list earlier, but the full ranked list comes in May.
According to the SSA, Olivia was the most popular girl's name in 2023. It has held the number one position since 2019. Emma was the second most popular, followed by Charlotte in third place.
The rankings are a valuable tool for sociologists studying cultural trends and for businesses in industries like toys and education. For parents, the list can help them choose a name, either by selecting a popular one or intentionally avoiding the most common choices to ensure their child's name is more unique.
Yes. Emma is a prime example. It was the top name from 2008 to 2013, was surpassed by Sophia in 2014, and then returned to number one from 2015 to 2018. This demonstrates that names can have cyclical popularity rather than simply fading away forever.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Before Dec 2026 If X is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by the Social Security Administration. The SSA usually releases this list in May of the following year. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Female name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025. This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is


This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” too

If Olivia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by t


This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” too

If Emma is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by the


This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” too

If Amelia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by t


This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” too

If Mia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published by the


This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” too

If Charlotte is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will be based on the official list of the most popular baby names in the United States, as published b
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