This prediction market focuses on forecasting the most popular baby girl name in the United States for 2025, as determined by the Social Security Administration (SSA). The SSA compiles its annual list from the millions of Social Security card applications for newborns, making it the definitive national ranking of name popularity. The market resolves based on the official SSA list, typically released in May 2026. Interest in this topic stems from its reflection of broader cultural trends, parental preferences, and the cyclical nature of naming conventions, making it a subject of public fascination and demographic study. The competition for the top spot is often between a small group of names that have dominated recent years, with subtle shifts indicating changing tastes. Predicting the winner involves analyzing multi-year trends, the influence of popular culture, and the gradual decline or resurgence of specific names. The outcome is not merely a trivial fact but a data point that sociologists, marketers, and expectant parents monitor closely. The SSA's methodology, which counts every name registered for a Social Security Number, provides a complete and unbiased dataset, unlike private surveys or limited samples. This makes the annual list a reliable benchmark for understanding American naming habits.

Historical Context

The Social Security Administration has published its baby names list since 1997, with data going back to 1880. This long-term dataset reveals clear historical cycles in naming popularity. For most of the 20th century, a single name would often dominate for a decade or more. Mary was the number one girl's name for an astonishing 64 non-consecutive years between 1880 and 1961. This stability gave way to more rapid turnover in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Since 2000, only three names have held the top spot for girls: Emily (1996-2007), Emma (2008-2013, and again from 2014-2018), and Olivia. Olivia first reached number one in 2019 and has held the position through 2023, marking one of the more sustained reigns in recent memory. The boy's name list has shown similar consolidation, with Liam leading since 2017. This recent pattern of multi-year champions contrasts with the more frequent changes seen in the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting a new era of preference for established, classic names over fleeting fads. The data also shows a significant decline in the market share of the top names. In 1950, the top ten girl names accounted for about 24% of all female births. By 2023, that figure had fallen to around 7%, indicating parents are choosing from a much wider and more diverse set of names than in the past.

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