Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Name: Richest person on December 31, 2026?
End: 2027-01-03T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.94M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Vol

$1.94M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.94M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.94M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Poly	97%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Michael Dell be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$1.94M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Richest person on December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 3, 2027 (83 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.94M
* **Total Liquidity:** $205.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $197.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $62.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $134.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $369.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $346.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $180.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $92.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $312.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $153.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $89.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Michael Dell be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $984
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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