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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Name: Richest person on December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.78M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Vol

$1.78M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.78M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.78M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Poly	89%
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?	Poly	2%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$1.78M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Richest person on December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (170 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.78M
* **Total Liquidity:** $372.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $51.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $362.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $170.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $305.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $76.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $132.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $121.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $333.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $83.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $138.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech