Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?
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11
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks for the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 21 October 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius [1]. The rules name NOAA's "Temp" column as the primary source. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
The rules also state that revisions are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published, and that a market may stay open for up to seven calendar days if the source publishes clearly erroneous data [1]. The listed end time is 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2026 [1]. That is a provider-listed time, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 06:00:06 UTC on 19 October 2026 and retrieved at 06:09:02 UTC the same day [1]. These are prices from that moment only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The saved event contains 11 binary markets, and all 11 are included in this sample [1]. Their Yes prices are:
- 18°C or below: 0.50
- 19°C: 0.34
- 20°C through 27°C: 0.34 each
- 28°C or higher: 0.49 [1]
Several contracts share the same price, so the snapshot does not separate them. The 18°C or below and 28°C or higher brackets are open-ended, which affects how their wording should be read. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract, so the prices should not be added together or treated as a single distribution without careful checking of the rules. Different prices across contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, number of traders, or any explanation for why prices are where they are.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot cannot show later prices, the final NOAA reading, or whether any source revision will occur. The evidence also does not say which bracket is the lowest bracket in the fallback rule beyond the wording quoted above. A reader should check the current contract page and the resolution rules before drawing conclusions about the outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.