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Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

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Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

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38 markets tracked

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

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Single-Platform Markets(38)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	19%
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	19%
Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	10%
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	8%
Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	7%
Will Ron DeSantis become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	7%
Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	5%
Will Emil Bove become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	4%
Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	3%
Will Barbara Lagoa become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	2%
Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	2%
Will Michael Park become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Lawrence VanDyke become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Anna St. John become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Kevin Newsom become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Yaakov Roth become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	1%
Will Kristen Waggoner become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Matthew Kacsmaryk become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Evan Young become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Trevor McFadden become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Patrick Wyrick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Kevin Brobson become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Stephanos Bibas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Allison Eid become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Mark Martin become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Kathryn Mizelle become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Joan Larsen become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will David Stras become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Clint Bolick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Britt Grant become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Stuart Kyle Duncan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Tom Cotton become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Morse Tan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Kate Comerford Todd become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Gregory G. Katsas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%
Will Allison Jones Rushing become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

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19%

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About This Event

By January 20, 2029 If X is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice. This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By January 20, 2029

If X is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice. This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Anna St. John is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anna St. John become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yaakov Roth become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ron DeSantis become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Emil Bove become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Stephanos Bibas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Allison Eid become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Tom Cotton become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Patrick Wyrick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Morse Tan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Mark Martin become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Kristen Waggoner become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Kate Comerford Todd become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Trevor McFadden become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Michael Park become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Matthew Kacsmaryk become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Kevin Newsom become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Kathryn Mizelle become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Kevin Brobson become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Joan Larsen become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Gregory G. Katsas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Evan Young become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will David Stras become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Clint Bolick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Barbara Lagoa become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Britt Grant become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Allison Jones Rushing become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Stuart Kyle Duncan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Lawrence VanDyke become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

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Markets38

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KALSHI

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

If Andrew Oldham is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

KALSHI

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

If James Ho is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

KALSHI

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

If Aileen Cannon is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

KALSHI

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

If D. John Sauer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

KALSHI

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.4¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.

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Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

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Events (1)

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Markets (38)

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

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Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

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