TX-02 House Election Winner
PM $33.5K
1
2
TX-02 House Election Winner
PM $33.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Steve Toth (R) at 93.5%.
Polymarket
- Steve Toth (R)93.5%
- Shaun Finnie (D)6.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $33.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which party will win the TX-02 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, which the rules state will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract resolves by party, not by candidate name. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
The rules say resolution will follow a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market resolves on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract data, not a statement of when results will be announced.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z and retrieved at 06:38 UTC the same day [1]. It shows two active binary markets. The Republican Party market has a Yes price of 0.935 and a No price of 0.065. The Democratic Party market has a Yes price of 0.065 and a No price of 0.935 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the snapshot does not explain why the prices are where they are.
Because the two markets cover the same race with complementary wording, their Yes prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot. Read them as two views of one contract pair, not as separate forecasts. The snapshot does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
Both markets are in one saved event with two markets, and the sample is marked complete for that event. The coverage record notes that all saved markets are included, but it does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome in the real-world race [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the election result, any results timing beyond the listed end time, or any news about the race. It also does not show how prices have changed over time or how this market has performed historically. Any reader comparing this contract with a market on another platform should check that the resolution wording, party definitions, and listed close times match before comparing prices. Different wording can mean different outcomes even when the race looks the same.
References
- Polymarket: TX-02 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled TX-02 House Election Winner. The event asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Texas's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The provider's rules say the market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat [1]. The seat is one of Texas's 38 U.S. House districts, and the state's House elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2]. The contract's wording addresses how a party is assigned. A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is treated as belonging to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The rules also set out how the outcome is determined. Resolution is based on the result indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That listed end time is the contract's closing time, not the date the result is determined. The rules tie resolution to when races are conclusively called, so the closing time and the resolution date can differ. The PredictPedia snapshot for this event was observed on October 28, 2026 at 06:00 UTC, and the provider's status at that observation was active [1]. Because it is a saved observation, it describes the market at that time and should not be read as a live view of the market today.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which major party will hold the TX-02 House seat after the 2026 midterm elections. Each party has its own binary contract in the saved event, so the question can be read from either side [1]. Because the rules define party membership and resolution in specific terms, the contract is a question about the official outcome as determined under those rules, not simply a question about which candidate is favored in campaign coverage [1]. The contract's outcome depends on how the race is called and how party affiliation is recorded at that time. Readers should check the rules directly for the precise wording, especially for cases involving unaffiliated candidates or disputed results [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether the market resolves Yes for a party?
The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission used if the reporting is ambiguous [1].
How is a candidate's party decided if they have no ballot-listed party?
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus, measured when the House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1].
When is the election, and when does the market end?
The Texas House elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2]. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC for this market [1]. The rules tie resolution to when the races are conclusively called, so the listed end time is not the same as the result date [1].
Does a price on this contract show how likely a party is to win?
The saved prices are snapshots from a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A price shows how the market was priced at that moment, and it does not confirm the outcome or the likelihood of the result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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