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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$95.37K

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Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Vol

$95.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $95.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $95.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	100%
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	97%
Will John Kennedy vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	93%
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	61%
Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	44%
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	1%
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$95.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nominati"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $95.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $35.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $132
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $46.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $759
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will John Kennedy vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics