Name: Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

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Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Poly	89%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?	Poly	5%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	Poly	4%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	Poly	3%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?	Poly	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). 

This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (P

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first ro"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $243.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $66.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $32.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $46.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $87.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be  greater than 85%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

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Events (1)

Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout

Markets (5)

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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