2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
San Francisco at Gonzaga Winner? (Gonzaga) | Kalshi | 77% |
San Francisco at Gonzaga Winner? (San Francisco) | Kalshi | 16% |
$860.00
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
SF at GONZ (Jan 15) If X wins the San Francisco at Gonzaga women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the team who wins the San Francisco at Gonzaga women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 15, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished, within two weeks. If the cancelled game is not played or is reschedule
Prediction markets currently assign a 77% probability to Gonzaga winning this women's college basketball matchup. This price, translating to implied odds of roughly -335, indicates the market views a Gonzaga victory as the clear expected outcome. However, the 23% chance priced for a San Francisco upset reflects the inherent volatility in sports, where a single-game result is never guaranteed. The market exhibits only moderate confidence, partly due to the thin trading volume of approximately $1,000, which can lead to less efficient pricing.
The primary factor is Gonzaga's established dominance in the West Coast Conference (WCC) and their consistent national ranking. Historically, Gonzaga's women's program has been a powerhouse, often featuring a top-tier defense and efficient offense. San Francisco, while capable, has typically been a tier below in the conference standings. The game being played at Gonzaga's home court, The Kennel, is a significant advantage, contributing to the high probability. The market is pricing in the fundamental talent gap and home-court edge that have defined this conference rivalry for years.
Key injuries to Gonzaga's starters between now and the scheduled date would be the most direct catalyst for shifting odds, potentially narrowing the probability spread significantly. Conversely, if San Francisco enters the game on an exceptional winning streak or with a major, impactful transfer proving to be a star, the market could reprice the upset potential. The thin liquidity means that any major news or a sharp bet from a well-informed trader could move the price more dramatically than in a deep, liquid market. Monitoring both teams' performance in the weeks leading up to this conference clash will be essential.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a women's college basketball game between the University of San Francisco Dons and the Gonzaga University Bulldogs, originally scheduled for January 15, 2026. The market resolves based on which team wins that specific contest. The game is part of the West Coast Conference (WCC) regular season schedule, a critical period for teams positioning themselves for conference tournament seeding and potential NCAA Tournament bids. The market includes provisions for postponement, remaining open and resolving based on the result of a rescheduled game if the original date is not met, provided it occurs within a two-week window. This creates a unique prediction instrument that accounts for the inherent uncertainty in collegiate sports scheduling while focusing on the competitive result. Interest in this market stems from several factors, including the historical rivalry within the WCC, the consistent national prominence of Gonzaga's women's program, and San Francisco's efforts to build a competitive team under head coach Molly Goodenbour. Furthermore, women's college basketball has seen a significant surge in popularity and media coverage in recent years, driven by star players and increased television exposure, making individual game outcomes a subject of broader fan and betting interest. The specific timing in mid-January places this game during the heart of the conference schedule, where every result carries amplified importance for postseason aspirations.
The women's basketball series between San Francisco and Gonzaga has been defined by Gonzaga's prolonged dominance within the West Coast Conference. Historically, Gonzaga has established itself as the premier women's program in the WCC since the early 2000s, regularly finishing at or near the top of the conference standings. For example, between the 2010-11 and 2023-24 seasons, Gonzaga won the WCC regular season title 10 times and the conference tournament 9 times. In contrast, San Francisco has typically been a mid-to-lower tier team in the conference during that same period, with sporadic winning seasons. The head-to-head record reflects this disparity. In the decade preceding 2024, Gonzaga held an overwhelming advantage in the series, often winning by significant margins. However, the historical context also includes notable upsets. For instance, during the 2021-22 season, San Francisco defeated a ranked Gonzaga team at home, demonstrating the potential for volatility in conference play. This history creates a clear narrative for the prediction market: a consistent powerhouse versus a program seeking to build momentum and achieve signature wins. The January 15 date is also historically significant as it falls during a period where conference standings begin to solidify, and teams make their final push before the WCC tournament in early March.
The outcome of this specific game matters for the immediate trajectory of both programs. For Gonzaga, a loss to a lower-ranked conference opponent could damage their resume for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament and potentially cost them a high seed in the WCC tournament. For San Francisco, a victory over a conference giant like Gonzaga would be a program-defining win, boosting team morale, aiding in recruitment, and significantly enhancing their profile for postseason consideration, potentially for the WNIT. Beyond the court, the prediction market itself represents the growing intersection of sports analytics, fan engagement, and speculative markets. It allows fans and analysts to formalize their predictions about game outcomes, creating a tangible metric for collective wisdom. The market's structure, which accommodates schedule changes, also reflects the modern reality of collegiate athletics, where games are increasingly subject to postponement due to health protocols or other issues, requiring flexible contractual and predictive instruments. The attention on this game contributes to the broader financial ecosystem of women's sports, including media rights, ticket sales, and merchandise, which are all positively influenced by competitive and meaningful contests.
As of late 2024, both programs are in their respective offseason periods following the conclusion of the 2023-24 campaign. Gonzaga is preparing for another season as the WCC favorite, likely integrating new recruits while returning core players. San Francisco is continuing its rebuild under Coach Goodenbour, focusing on player development and strategic planning for the upcoming seasons. The official schedule for the 2025-26 season, which includes the January 15, 2026 matchup, has not yet been released by the West Coast Conference. Conference schedules are typically finalized and announced in the summer preceding the season. Therefore, the specific date is provisional based on the standard conference scheduling cycle. All prediction activity for this market is forward-looking, based on historical performance, program trajectories, and anticipated roster compositions for the 2025-26 season.
The game is scheduled to be played at the McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Washington, which is the home court of the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This venue is known for its strong home-court advantage.
The market description states it resolves based on the game 'originally scheduled for Jan 15, 2026.' If the game is cancelled entirely and not played, the market resolution would typically be governed by the platform's rules for cancelled events, which often result in the market being voided or resolving as 'No Action.'
Broadcast details will be announced closer to the 2026 game date. Historically, Gonzaga women's games are televised on networks like ESPN, CBS Sports Network, or regional sports networks, and streamed on platforms like ESPN+.
Based on historical precedent and recent program performance, Gonzaga will be a significant favorite. Their consistent dominance in the WCC and strong home-court record make them the expected winner, though upsets in conference play are always possible.
The WCC is an NCAA Division I athletic conference consisting of 10 member schools, primarily on the West Coast. It includes Gonzaga, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, BYU, and others. Gonzaga's women's basketball team has been the conference's dominant power for over a decade.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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