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$14.62K
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$14.62K
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This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will not qualify, regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. Markets may resolve to "No" as soon as s
Prediction markets currently give the highest probability, about 29%, to the outcome that Israel will strike exactly four different countries in 2026. This means traders see it as the single most likely number, but still an unlikely bet overall. The combined odds for striking three or four countries are nearly 50%, suggesting traders are almost evenly split between a more contained scenario and a wider one. The market assigns less than a 10% chance to Israel striking just one country, indicating a strong consensus that cross-border military action will extend beyond a single theater.
The current odds reflect Israel's ongoing conflicts and regional tensions. First, strikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria have been a consistent feature for years and are widely expected to continue, accounting for at least one country. Second, the war against Hamas has involved frequent exchanges of fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, making a second country highly probable. The third and fourth potential countries are more speculative but point to escalation. This could involve direct strikes inside Iran if tensions spike, or more sustained action against Houthi targets in Yemen, which has occurred previously. The low probability for a single strike suggests traders believe the current multi-front pressure is unlikely to fully de-escalate within the year.
The timeline for this prediction is the entire year, so watch for events that could widen or narrow the conflict. A major trigger would be a significant attack on Israel from a new actor, potentially drawing a direct retaliation. Progress or collapse in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in Gaza could directly impact the intensity of the Lebanon front. Another key signal is any major confrontation between Israel and Iran, such as a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or a severe Iranian retaliation from its territory. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2026 could also shift the market, as perceptions of American support and diplomatic pressure may change.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on specific, contingent military events. They are often good at aggregating intelligence about ongoing patterns, like the high likelihood of strikes in Syria. However, they can struggle with predicting sudden escalations or de-escalations driven by unpredictable political decisions or secret diplomacy. The moderate amount of money wagered here suggests informed speculation but not an overwhelming consensus. These odds are a snapshot of current expectations, and they will likely shift rapidly in response to major news from the region.
Prediction markets assign the highest probability, 29%, to the outcome that Israel will strike exactly four different countries in 2026. This is a low-confidence forecast, indicating the market sees no single scenario as dominant. The combined probabilities for striking three, four, or five countries are significantly higher than for striking zero, one, or two, suggesting traders expect continued regional military action. With $880,000 in volume, the market has moderate liquidity, reflecting serious speculative interest in this geopolitical question.
The pricing reflects Israel's established doctrine of preemptive strikes against Iranian-linked targets across the Middle East. In recent years, Israel has conducted acknowledged or attributed strikes in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza. The market's focus on three to five countries assumes this pattern persists, with Syria and Lebanon as near-certain targets. The 29% probability on four countries likely accounts for strikes in those two nations, plus two additional jurisdictions, such as Iraqi soil or strikes against Hamas or Hezbollah operatives in a third country like Turkey or Jordan. The odds are shaped by the understanding that Israel views these operations as essential for countering weapons transfers and terror threats.
A major shift in the Iran-Israel proxy conflict would dramatically reset prices. An escalation into direct war between Israel and Iran or Hezbollah could rapidly expand the theater of operations, pushing outcomes toward five or more countries. Conversely, a successful, durable ceasefire in Gaza combined with a de-escalation agreement with Hezbollah would make lower outcomes more likely. The U.S. presidential election in November 2024 is a key variable, as a change in administration could alter U.S. diplomatic pressure or military support, influencing Israel's operational calculus. Monitoring Israeli cabinet statements and cross-border incident frequency in late 2025 will provide the clearest signals for 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the number of distinct countries the United States will conduct military strikes against in 2026. A strike is defined as the initiation of a drone, missile, or air attack on another country's soil. The resolution period runs the entire calendar year. Specific rules govern the counting: attacks on embassies or consulates count against the host country, not the nation the diplomatic mission represents. Strikes within U.S. territory as defined at the end of 2025 are excluded. This topic sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, military strategy, and international law. Interest stems from its direct measurement of American military engagement abroad, which has significant geopolitical and humanitarian consequences. Recent years have seen a pattern of U.S. counterterrorism operations across multiple regions, alongside evolving conflicts with state and non-state actors. The outcome for 2026 will reflect the administration's priorities, threat assessments, and the global security environment. Analysts monitor this to gauge the scope and scale of U.S. military intervention.
The U.S. practice of conducting strikes in multiple countries expanded significantly after the September 11, 2001 attacks. The 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) became the legal basis for operations against al-Qaeda and associated forces worldwide. During the Obama administration, the use of drone strikes increased markedly, with operations recorded in at least seven countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. The administration established a formal process for approving strikes outside active battlefields, often called the "disposition matrix." The Trump administration delegated more strike authority to the Pentagon and CIA, and in 2020, the U.S. conducted a strike in Iraq that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, a significant escalation against a state actor. Under the Biden administration, strikes have continued, though with reported efforts to tighten targeting rules to reduce civilian casualties. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 did not end cross-border strikes, as the U.S. conducted a drone strike in Kabul during the evacuation and has continued operations against ISIS-K. The historical pattern shows the U.S. consistently engaging in military action in several countries each year, even without large-scale troop deployments.
The number of countries struck is a concrete metric for the global footprint of U.S. military power. A higher number suggests a more expansive interpretation of national security threats and a willingness to use force unilaterally across borders. This has direct consequences for international relations, potentially straining alliances and provoking adversarial responses from affected states or their patrons. For the countries targeted, U.S. strikes can cause civilian casualties, damage infrastructure, and fuel local anti-American sentiment, sometimes creating a recruitment tool for the very militant groups the operations aim to suppress. Domestically, these actions carry political risk. They can lead to congressional scrutiny, legal challenges regarding the scope of the AUMF, and public debate over perpetual war. The financial cost is also substantial, with each missile or drone sortie costing hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. The decision to strike in a new country often represents a significant foreign policy commitment with unpredictable long-term ramifications.
As of late 2024, U.S. military strikes continue in several theaters. In the Middle East, operations against ISIS remnants persist in Iraq and Syria. In the Horn of Africa, the U.S. supports the Somali government with periodic strikes against al-Shabaab militants. The conflict in Gaza and regional tensions with Iranian-backed groups have increased the risk of escalation, potentially leading to U.S. defensive or retaliatory strikes in new locations like Yemen or deeper into Iraqi or Syrian territory. The Biden administration has maintained its counterterrorism posture while publicly emphasizing caution and diplomatic solutions. Military planners are likely assessing potential targets and contingency plans for 2026 based on evolving intelligence.
For this market, a strike is the initiation of a drone, missile, or air attack on another country's soil. Ground raids or artillery fire from within another country would also qualify. Cyber attacks or financial sanctions do not count.
No. Only strikes directly initiated by the United States military or intelligence agencies (like the CIA) are counted. Actions taken solely by partner nations, even with U.S. logistical or intelligence support, do not qualify.
It counts as one country. The market resolves on the total number of different countries struck, not the number of individual strike events. Multiple strikes in Syria, for example, would only add one to the final tally.
The market uses the standard international recognition of territorial boundaries as of December 31, 2025. A strike in a region like Crimea or the West Bank would be assessed based on which country's sovereignty is widely recognized over that land.
The U.S. Department of Defense or Central Command (CENTCOM/AFRICOM) often announces major strikes. Many are first reported by local news or monitoring groups. For market resolution, credible reporting from major news agencies (AP, Reuters) and official U.S. statements will be the primary sources.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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