Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?

Name: Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$698.68

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?

Vol

$698.68

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $698.68

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $698.68

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?	Poly	81%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$698.68

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $699
* **Total Liquidity:** $474
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.47)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $699
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics