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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic party win the Attorney General race in Illinois? | Kalshi | 97% |
Will the Republican party win the Attorney General race in Illinois? | Kalshi | 3% |
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In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as the Attorney General of Illinois for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Attorney General for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Attorney General for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently price a Democratic victory in the 2026 Illinois Attorney General race as nearly certain. On Kalshi, the contract "Will the Democratic party win the Attorney General race in Illinois?" trades at 97 cents, implying a 97% probability. This price indicates the market views a Democratic win as the overwhelming favorite, with only a minimal 3% chance assigned to a Republican or other party victory. Given the thin trading volume of approximately $1,000, this high confidence level is notable.
Two structural factors heavily drive this pricing. First, Illinois is a solidly Democratic state in federal and statewide elections. The office has been held by Democrats since 2003, with current Attorney General Kwame Raoul winning re-election in 2022 by a 9-point margin. Second, the role of Attorney General has become increasingly nationalized, with Democratic AGs in blue states frequently engaging in litigation against Republican presidential administrations and policies. This dynamic reinforces partisan alignment in state-level elections, making a party flip exceptionally difficult without a monumental political shift.
The primary catalyst for changing these odds would be the emergence of a uniquely flawed Democratic candidate or a nationally dominant Republican cycle in 2026. Given the election is over two years away, the specific candidates are unknown. A significant scandal involving the Democratic nominee could erode this overwhelming confidence. Conversely, if a popular Republican figure, such as a moderate former statewide officeholder, were to run, the market might see a temporary tightening. However, the 97% price reflects a judgment that even these scenarios are unlikely to overcome the state's strong Democratic lean in this particular office. Monitoring candidate announcements and primary results in early 2026 will be critical for any major shift in probability.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Illinois Attorney General election will determine who serves as the state's chief legal officer from 2027 to 2031. The Attorney General of Illinois leads the second-largest state attorney general's office in the United States, overseeing a staff of approximately 800 employees, including over 400 attorneys. This position holds significant authority to prosecute complex financial crimes, enforce consumer protection laws, manage civil litigation involving the state, and issue legal opinions that shape Illinois law. The office has become increasingly prominent in national politics through multistate lawsuits on issues ranging from environmental regulations to tech industry antitrust actions. The 2026 election is particularly significant as it will follow the conclusion of current Attorney General Kwame Raoul's second term, creating an open seat for the first time since 2018. Political observers are watching this race closely because Illinois has become a reliably Democratic state in presidential elections but maintains competitive down-ballot races, with the Attorney General position serving as a potential stepping stone to higher office. The election will occur alongside gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests in Illinois, potentially creating coattail effects that could influence the Attorney General outcome. Voters will be evaluating candidates based on their legal experience, policy priorities, and ability to manage one of the nation's most active state legal offices.
The Illinois Attorney General's office has evolved significantly since its establishment in 1819. For much of the 20th century, the position was relatively low-profile, but it gained national prominence under Democrat Neil Hartigan (1983-1991) and Republican Jim Ryan (1995-2003). The modern era of the office began with Democrat Lisa Madigan's election in 2002. Madigan served four terms from 2003 to 2019, becoming the longest-serving Illinois Attorney General and establishing the office as a powerful force in consumer protection and environmental enforcement. Her decision not to seek a fifth term in 2018 created the first open seat in 16 years. The 2018 election saw Democrat Kwame Raoul defeat Republican Erika Harold 54% to 47.5%, a closer margin than most expected in a Democratic wave year. Raoul's re-election in 2022 was more decisive, with him defeating Republican Thomas DeVore 55.5% to 42.5%. Historically, Illinois has elected attorneys general from both parties, with Democrats holding the office for 24 of the past 40 years. The office has served as a springboard to higher positions, with three former Illinois attorneys general later serving as governor and two as federal judges. The 2026 election will mark only the third open seat contest since 2002, creating rare opportunity for political advancement.
The Illinois Attorney General wields substantial influence over consumer protection, environmental policy, and civil rights enforcement affecting 12.7 million residents. The office manages approximately 25,000 active legal cases at any given time and recovers hundreds of millions of dollars annually through settlements and judgments. These funds support state services and provide restitution to Illinois consumers and businesses. Beyond financial impacts, the Attorney General's decisions shape legal precedents on issues including privacy rights, corporate accountability, and government transparency. The office also determines enforcement priorities for Illinois' criminal justice system, particularly regarding complex financial crimes and public corruption cases. For the legal community, the Attorney General oversees licensing for over 95,000 active attorneys in Illinois and handles approximately 6,000 attorney disciplinary matters annually. The election outcome will influence Illinois' participation in multistate lawsuits, which have become increasingly important tools for addressing national issues like opioid addiction, climate change, and technology regulation. Businesses operating in Illinois monitor this election closely, as the Attorney General's enforcement approach can significantly affect regulatory compliance costs and legal risk exposure.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Illinois Attorney General race remains in its formative stage with no declared candidates. Potential candidates are likely conducting private polling, building fundraising networks, and consulting with political advisors ahead of expected announcements in 2025. The Democratic field is particularly uncertain given the open seat, with several state legislators, county officials, and former statewide candidates considering bids. Republican prospects may depend on the national political environment in 2026 and whether the party can recruit a candidate who can appeal to suburban voters while maintaining the conservative base. The Illinois State Board of Elections will begin accepting candidate petitions in late 2025, with primaries scheduled for March 17, 2026. Political action committees and party organizations are beginning to assess potential candidates' viability through early polling and donor surveys. The concurrent gubernatorial election will likely dominate political attention and resources, potentially creating opportunities for lesser-known Attorney General candidates to gain traction with targeted appeals to specific constituencies.
The primary election will be held on March 17, 2026, with the general election following on November 3, 2026. The winner will be sworn into office in January 2027 for a four-year term.
Candidates must be U.S. citizens, at least 25 years old, licensed to practice law in Illinois, and residents of the state for at least three years preceding the election. They must also gather valid signatures from registered voters to qualify for the ballot.
The current salary for Illinois Attorney General is $180,800 annually, set by state law. This places Illinois among the higher-paying state attorney general positions in the United States.
The Attorney General serves as the state's chief legal officer, representing Illinois in court, issuing legal opinions to state agencies, prosecuting complex crimes, enforcing consumer protection laws, and overseeing charity regulation. The office also handles criminal appeals and represents the state in federal litigation.
The last Republican to win election as Illinois Attorney General was Jim Ryan in 1998. Republicans have lost the last six consecutive elections for this office, with their closest recent result being Erika Harold's 6.5-point loss in 2018.
Illinois frequently joins multistate lawsuits on national issues, and the Attorney General determines the state's participation. Recent attorneys general have been active in cases involving climate change, healthcare, immigration, and technology regulation, giving the office national influence.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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