Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
PM $375.6K
1
1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?
PM $375.6K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 10%.
Polymarket
- December 3110%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $375.6K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, listed under the event "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?" in the Politics category [1]. The market title asks whether he will be out "by December 31?" [1]. The resolution text, however, says the market resolves "Yes" if Díaz-Canel "ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. An announced resignation or removal before the market's end date would also resolve it "Yes," even if the change takes effect later [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That corresponds to late on December 31, 2026 in Eastern Time, which does not match the June 30, 2026 date in the resolution wording. The evidence does not explain this difference, so a reader should check the platform's current rules before relying on either date.
The stated resolution sources are the government of Cuba, with a consensus of credible reporting also sufficing [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:04:28.548Z [1]. The recorded prices were 0.14 for "Yes" and 0.86 for "No" [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The saved sample contains one market, and the coverage record shows it is complete for this event, with no partial sample [1]. Because there is only one contract, there is no comparison with other outcomes in this data, and no conclusion can be drawn about omitted outcomes. The saved data also does not include trading volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are active.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is at its recorded level, and it contains no recent news about Cuban leadership. Because the title, resolution wording, and listed end time differ, the exact window that governs settlement is not established by this snapshot alone. The evidence also does not show whether the platform has changed the market since the observation time. A price on another platform, or on a differently worded contract, should not be compared directly with this one unless the rules match.
References
- Polymarket: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will cease to be President of Cuba for any period of time within a defined window. The rules state that the market resolves Yes if he ceases to hold the presidency at any point between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and resolves No otherwise [1]. The contract is therefore about a specific interval, not about whether he holds office at a single later date. The rules also address announcements. A public announcement of his resignation or removal before the market's end date would resolve the contract to Yes, even if the resignation or removal takes effect later [1]. The rules describe the resolution source as the government of Cuba, while noting that a consensus of credible reporting would also be sufficient [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, and the market title refers to December 31, while the rule text specifies June 30, 2026 as the end of the window [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text for when the window closes and treat the listed end time as a provider field that does not restate that window. The contract's price snapshot is a point-in-time observation from the provider and is not a verified probability of the outcome.
Historical Context
Background on the office and political system is available from Wikipedia entries. Cuba has had a socialist political system since 1961 based on a "one state, one party" principle, and it is constitutionally defined as a unitary one-party Marxist-Leninist socialist republic [3]. The present Constitution was approved in a referendum on 24 February 2019 and describes the Communist Party of Cuba as the "leading force of society and of the state" [3]. The first secretary of the Communist Party is described as the most powerful position in Cuba [3]. Díaz-Canel's career is summarized in a Wikipedia entry, which states that he became the 17th president of Cuba in 2019 and was president of the Council of State from 2018 until 2019 [2]. The same entry describes him as the 8th first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and as the leader of Cuba since 2021 [2]. These are historical biographical details and do not confirm his status on any particular date after the retrieval.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the subject ceases to be President of Cuba for any period within the stated window [1]. Because the rule covers any period of removal, a brief interruption within the window would count under the written terms [1]. Its design also means that an announced resignation or removal can settle the contract before the change actually takes effect [1]. The political background, including the one-party structure in which the Communist Party's first secretary holds the most powerful position, helps explain the institutional setting in which such a change would occur [3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event would resolve this contract to Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Does an announcement count before the change takes effect?
Yes, according to the rules. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change goes into effect [1].
Who determines the resolution?
The rules name the government of Cuba as the resolution source, and state that a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice [1].
Why does the title mention December 31 when the window ends June 30, 2026?
The rule text specifies June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET as the end of the window, while the market title and provider end time reference a later date [1]. The rule text is the stated resolution criterion.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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