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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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35 markets tracked

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(35)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	99%
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	47%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	38%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	33%
Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	27%
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	22%
Will Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	19%
Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%
Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%
Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%
Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%
Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	4%
Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	4%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	4%
Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	4%
Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%
Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%
Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%
Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%
Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has either officially announced their intention to leave as Y or has actually left Y before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leav

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X has either officially announced their intention to leave as Y or has actually left Y before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leav

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sébastien Lecornu
 has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of France or has actually left Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.1% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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Markets35

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KALSHI

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

If Gustavo Petro has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Colombia or has actually left President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized

KALSHI

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

If Christopher Luxon has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of New Zealand or has actually left Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselve

KALSHI

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their

KALSHI

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

If Miguel Díaz-Canel has either officially announced their intention to leave as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or has actually left First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a

KALSHI

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

If Sébastien Lecornu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of France or has actually left Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their

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Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Markets (35)

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

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