ZEC Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 4.71 contracts
1
1
ZEC Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 4.71 contracts
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 4.71 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 18 - 11:00PM EDT to 11:15PM EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Oct 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi contract asks whether ZEC will rise over a 15-minute window. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to Yes if "the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Oct 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2026" [1]. The rules also specify that "the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI)" and that "the official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places" [1]. The contract is therefore about the benchmark index, not a general exchange quote.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:34:55Z [1]. It reports a Yes price of 0.535 and a No price of 0.465, rounded from the stored value of 0.46499999999999997 [1]. These are quoted prices from one saved observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The snapshot does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
The listed market end date is 2026-10-26T03:15:00Z, which differs from the 15-minute window in the rules [1]. The provider's excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied," and the supplied evidence does not explain the difference. For this contract, the rules describe the measurement window, while the listed end date is a separate field. Readers should not treat either date as a confirmed resolution time without checking the provider.
The provider marks the event as active [1]. That status describes the saved snapshot. It does not tell you the current status today.
What remains uncertain
This sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. Because the sample has only one contract, no comparison with other outcomes or platforms is possible here.
The supplied evidence does not explain why the price stood where it did at the observation time, and it contains no information about actual resolution. Because the snapshot is from 03:00 UTC, it may not reflect prices at any later time.
References
- Kalshi: ZEC Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-horizon crypto price contract listed on Kalshi under the title "ZEC Up or Down - 15 minutes" [1]. The provider's rules describe a single 15-minute window, October 18, 2026, from 11:00 PM EDT to 11:15 PM EDT [1]. The contract asks whether the price of ZEC was higher at the end of that window than at its start, measured by an index rather than by a single trade or a single exchange quote. The resolution method is the core of the contract. The rules compare two averages. One is the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT. The other is the simple average of the sixty seconds of the same index before 11:00 PM EDT [1]. If the closing average is at least as high as the opening average, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also state that the price used is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index rather than on what a general price site or a single exchange shows [1]. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official value is their average, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places [1]. Because the comparison uses averages taken around each boundary, a sudden move in the final seconds affects the result only in proportion to its effect on those 60-second samples. The contract is therefore about the direction of the index between two windows, not about where ZEC trades at any particular instant.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the ZEC index level near the end of a 15-minute window is at least as high as its level near the start of that window [1]. Traders who buy the Yes or No outcome are taking a position on that short-term direction under the provider's rules. The rules specify the benchmark, the sampling method and the rounding, so the outcome depends on those definitions rather than on any headline or general market commentary [1]. The saved market record shows a Yes outcome priced at 0.535 and a No outcome priced at 0.465 in the provider data, with an end date field of October 26, 2026 at 03:15 UTC [1]. That end date field does not describe the resolution window in the rules, which are the 11:00 PM to 11:15 PM EDT period on October 18 [1]. The prices are a snapshot from the provider's observation time and are not an executable quote or a probability estimate.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does the contract use to decide the outcome?
The rules use CF Benchmarks' ZECUSDRTI, which is the Real Time Index for ZEC, rather than the price shown by a general site or a single exchange [1].
How is the starting and ending value calculated?
The rules compare the simple average of the sixty seconds of the index before 11:00 PM EDT with the simple average of the sixty seconds before 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1]. The official value is the average of 60 collected RTI prices, rounded to four decimal places [1].
When does the market resolve to Yes?
It resolves to Yes if the closing average is at least the opening average, meaning equal values also count as Yes [1].
Does the end date in the market record match the resolution window?
No. The market record lists an end date of October 26, 2026 at 03:15 UTC, while the rules describe the window as 11:00 PM to 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1]. The rule text is the source for how the window is measured [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
