XRP Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 114.17 contracts
1
1
XRP Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 114.17 contracts
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 114.17 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 18 - 11:00PM EDT to 11:15PM EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Oct 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a 15-minute contract on XRP price direction from Kalshi [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to Yes if "the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Oct 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2026" [1]. The rules also specify that the reference price is CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index, not a general exchange or search-engine quote, and that the final value is rounded to four decimal places [1].
The wording matters for comparison. A contract on a different index, a different window, or a different averaging method would not measure the same thing, even if its title looks similar. The rules describe the window as 11:00 PM to 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026, which is 03:00 to 03:15 UTC on October 19.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:43:55Z [1]. It shows the Yes outcome at 0.545 and the No outcome at about 0.455 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is not partial, so no other outcomes from this event are omitted [1].
The stored record lists an end date of 2026-10-26T03:15:00Z [1]. The rules describe the window ending 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, which corresponds to 03:15 UTC on October 19, one week earlier. The source excerpt also says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should check the provider page directly before relying on any listed close time.
The provider status is recorded as active at retrieval [1]. That describes the saved record, not the present state of the market.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were where they were at the observation time, and it does not describe trading activity or the number of participants. No volume figures are included in this snapshot, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity. The contract has not resolved according to the supplied evidence. Because the observation time and retrieval time are different from the present, the prices should be treated as historical snapshots only.
References
- Kalshi: XRP Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "XRP Up or Down - 15 minutes" on Kalshi [1]. The contract covers a window from 11:00 PM EDT to 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1]. It is a directional question about whether XRP's reference price is higher at the end of that window than at the start. The rule compares two averages. Each average uses the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI, a Real Time Index [1]. One average covers the period before 11:15 PM EDT and the other covers the period before 11:00 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes if the first average is at least the second [1]. The contract notes that the official value is the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration, rounded to four decimal places [1]. The contract specifies that the index, not a general price page, determines the outcome. The rules state that checking a source such as Google or Coinbase may help a trader make a decision, but the market is settled on the CF Benchmarks index [1]. Traders should therefore read the index definition rather than assume that any single exchange price will decide the result. Timing matters for interpreting the saved data. The provider observation was recorded at 03:00:06 UTC on October 19, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 03:43:55 UTC the same day [1]. The 11:00 PM and 11:15 PM EDT times in the rules correspond to 03:00 and 03:15 UTC on October 19. The saved snapshot therefore reflects the market before the window closed. The saved records do not show the final averages or the settled result, so this article does not state an outcome.
Historical Context
Cryptocurrency is described as a type of digital asset that uses distributed ledger, or blockchain, technology to enable a secure transaction [3]. Bitcoin is described as the first decentralized cryptocurrency, invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, with its open-source implementation released in 2009 [2]. These sources provide general background on the asset class but do not describe XRP's history or the history of this specific contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures short-term movement in XRP's reference index over a 15-minute window [1]. Because it uses averages at both ends of the window rather than single prints, the result depends on how the index behaves across sixty-second samples, not only on the final tick [1]. This makes the index definition central to how the contract should be understood. Traders who rely on a different price source may see a different reading than the one used for settlement [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds before 11:00 PM EDT on the same date [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The rules state that the price is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, and that other sources such as Google or Coinbase may help guide a decision but do not set the result [1].
How is the final value calculated?
At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official value is their average, rounded to the nearest four decimal places [1].
Does the saved record show the settled result?
No. The saved provider data shows the contract status and rules, with the provider listing the end time as not supplied in the excerpt [1]. The record does not include the final index values, so it does not establish an outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
