Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Total Volume

$1.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Vol

$1.43K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.43K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.43K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	88%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	78%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	59%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	40%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	28%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	20%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	17%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 90000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	6%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	2%
Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 125000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$1.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Carnaval de Luz | November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above X Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metri

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Carnaval de Luz | November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above X Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metri

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 90K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 90000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $135
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $35
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $336
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 125000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $505
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Volume$1.43K

Markets10

10 of 10

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHICulture

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 25K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of

KALSHI

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHICulture

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 30K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of

KALSHI

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

KALSHICulture

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 40K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of

KALSHI

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.0¢No 60.0¢

KALSHICulture

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 50K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of

KALSHI

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHICulture

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval de Luz by U2 has above 60K Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of

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34¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/QDF-Py" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units"></iframe>

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Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Markets (10)

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

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Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Carnaval de Luz: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval de Luz by U2 have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

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