
$181.19K
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$181.19K
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6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the post-launch valuation of Extended's native token, specifically whether its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) will exceed a predetermined threshold exactly one day after its public trading debut. FDV represents the theoretical maximum market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the current market price. The market resolves based on the FDV at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day following the official launch, defined as when the token becomes actively and publicly transferable on trading platforms. This type of market is significant in the crypto ecosystem as it serves as a real-time sentiment gauge on a project's initial valuation success, often reflecting investor confidence in its tokenomics, utility, and long-term growth prospects beyond the initial hype. Recent years have seen increased scrutiny on high FDVs at launch, particularly following the 2021-2022 bull market where many tokens launched with multi-billion dollar FDVs only to decline substantially, making post-launch FDV performance a key metric for assessing sustainable value. Interest in this market stems from traders, project teams, and analysts who use it to hedge positions, benchmark performance against competitors, and understand market expectations for new crypto economic models.
The concept of Fully Diluted Valuation gained prominence during the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017-2018, where projects would sell tokens representing a fraction of a large total future supply. High-profile launches like EOS, which reached an FDV of over $12 billion during its year-long ICO, demonstrated the potential scale but also the risks of high initial valuations with unlocked future supply. The decentralized finance (DeFi) summer of 2020 introduced new launch models like liquidity bootstrapping pools (LBPs) and fair launches, which aimed to create more democratic price discovery. However, the 2021 bull market saw a return of high-FDV launches, exemplified by tokens like Internet Computer (ICP), which debuted with an FDV exceeding $90 billion in May 2021 before falling over 95% from its launch price. This pattern led to increased market focus on 'FDV reality checks' in the subsequent bear market. The collapse of projects like Terra/Luna in May 2022, partly attributed to unsustainable tokenomics and inflation, further cemented investor scrutiny on total supply and emission schedules. Precedents like the launch of Arbitrum's ARB token in March 2023, which achieved an FDV of approximately $16 billion on its first day, set a recent benchmark for layer-2 token launches, against which new entrants like Extended are often compared.
The FDV at launch is a critical health indicator for the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. An excessively high FDV can signal market froth and over-optimism, potentially leading to significant losses for retail investors and damaging trust in new projects. It also affects the project's own trajectory, as a high starting valuation leaves less room for exponential growth, potentially discouraging long-term holders. Conversely, a sustainably achieved FDV can validate a project's underlying technology and business model, attracting serious developers and institutional capital. For the crypto industry, the aggregate performance of new token launches influences regulatory perceptions. Regulators like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) monitor market behavior and valuations as part of their assessment of whether tokens constitute securities, with failed high-FDV launches potentially strengthening arguments for stricter oversight. Downstream, the success or failure of high-profile launches impacts venture capital funding flows, developer interest in the underlying blockchain, and the viability of similar future projects.
As of the latest available information, the Extended project has not yet announced a definitive public token launch date, though its testnet is operational and developer documentation is publicly accessible. The team has completed a Series A funding round, with rumors suggesting a valuation in the low nine figures. Market anticipation is building on crypto social media, with discussions focusing on potential tokenomics models, including speculation about total supply figures ranging from 1 billion to 10 billion tokens. Several major decentralized exchanges have hinted at readiness to host initial liquidity pools. The broader market context is one of cautious optimism following the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, with investors scrutinizing new launches for sustainable models rather than pure speculation.
FDV is calculated by multiplying the token's current market price by its total maximum supply. The total supply includes all tokens that will ever exist, including those locked, reserved for the team, or scheduled for future release through staking rewards or other mechanisms. Data for the calculation is typically sourced from the project's official documentation and real-time price feeds from major exchanges.
Locked or vested tokens are still included in the total supply for the FDV calculation, even though they are not immediately tradable. This means the FDV reflects the theoretical value if the entire future supply were circulating at the current price. The schedule for unlocking these tokens is a critical part of tokenomics, as large unlocks can create significant selling pressure in the future.
The first 24 hours of trading represent the initial price discovery phase where the market absorbs the new asset. Extreme volatility is common. By one day, the initial frenzy from airdrop claims, launchpool farming rewards, and first-minute trading often subsides, providing a more stable, though still early, valuation point that is less prone to manipulation or illiquidity artifacts than the first-hour price.
Common reasons include profit-taking by early investors and airdrop recipients, the discovery of weak fundamental demand after initial hype, negative reactions to token utility or governance details, broader market downturns, or the unlocking of large token allocations for venture capitalists and team members that were previously locked.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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6 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 79% |
![]() | Poly | 47% |
![]() | Poly | 31% |
![]() | Poly | 25% |
![]() | Poly | 6% |
![]() | Poly | 3% |





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