Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

Name: Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
End: 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.65K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

Vol

$5.65K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.65K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.65K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	Poly	63%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$5.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or othe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 1, 2027 (172 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention, house arrest in any form, closed, semi-open, or open prison regimes, and any other measure in a Brazilian criminal proceeding requiring confinement in a prison, residence, or othe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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