This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum air temperature recorded at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on March 29, 2026. The market will resolve based on the official high temperature reading for that date from the weather station at O'Hare, using data published by Weather Underground. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official high. This type of market falls under climate prediction, specifically short-term meteorological forecasting for a single location and date. Interest stems from the inherent challenge of predicting weather months in advance, the economic and social impacts of spring weather in Chicago, and the growing use of prediction markets to aggregate probabilistic forecasts on climate-related outcomes. The market's resolution depends entirely on instrumental data from a specific, certified weather observation site, removing subjective interpretation. Chicago's weather in late March is notoriously variable, capable of producing winter-like cold or unseasonable warmth, which introduces significant uncertainty and trading interest. These markets are often used by analysts, weather enthusiasts, and researchers to gauge collective expectations about future climate conditions, providing a financialized consensus view that can be compared to traditional meteorological model forecasts.

Historical Context

Chicago's climate records at the official O'Hare site date back to 1959, when observations moved from Midway Airport. This provides over 60 years of data for contextualizing a March 29 temperature. Historically, late March marks a transitional period where winter's grip loosens but spring is not fully established. The average high temperature for March 29 in Chicago, based on the 1991-2020 climate normal period, is 51 degrees Fahrenheit. The record high for the date is 81 degrees F, set in 1986. The record low maximum, meaning the coldest high temperature ever recorded on March 29, is 24 degrees F from 1965. In the last decade, temperatures on this date have shown wide swings. For example, on March 29, 2012, the high was a summer-like 78 degrees F. In contrast, on March 29, 2018, the high was only 34 degrees F with measurable snow. This historical volatility is a key driver of market uncertainty. The year 2026 will also be influenced by broader climate patterns. The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter will be a major factor, as El Niño conditions typically lead to milder, wetter winters and springs in Chicago, while La Niña can favor colder conditions.

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