$849.60K
2
38
$849.60K
2
38
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will
Prediction markets currently show Rafael López Aliaga, a conservative businessman and former presidential candidate, with about a 43% chance of winning Peru's 2026 presidential election. This is essentially a coin flip. Traders collectively see him as the single most likely winner, but they are far from certain. The remaining probability is spread across other potential candidates, reflecting a wide-open race. The market suggests López Aliaga, often called "Porky," is the candidate to beat, but that beating him is a very real possibility.
Two main factors explain López Aliaga's position at the front of the pack. First is name recognition and a solidified base. He finished third in the 2021 election and is the leader of the right-wing Popular Renewal party. In a fragmented political environment, having a dedicated core of supporters is a significant starting advantage.
Second, the market is likely weighing Peru's recent political instability. The country has had six presidents in the last eight years, with multiple removed by Congress or embroiled in corruption scandals. López Aliaga’s brand as a blunt-speaking political outsider and businessman resonates with voters frustrated by the political class. However, his controversial statements on social issues and past business disputes also create a high floor of opposition, which caps his probability below 50%.
The official campaign period will begin months before the April 12, 2026 election. Watch for two key moments. The first is the formal registration of candidate lists, which will confirm who is actually running. The second is the result of the first round of voting. Since a candidate needs over 50% to win outright, a runoff between the top two finishers is very likely. That second round, currently scheduled for June 2026, is where the ultimate winner will be decided. Market odds will shift dramatically after the first-round results show which two candidates made the final cut.
Prediction markets have a mixed but informative record on elections this far out. They are excellent at aggregating known information, like a candidate's established support. However, 50 days is a long time in politics, especially in Peru. New scandals, coalition formations, or a surge by a less-known candidate could quickly change the landscape. These markets are a snapshot of current informed sentiment, not a prophecy. Their real value increases as the election nears and more concrete polling and campaign events shape the race.
Prediction markets currently price Rafael López Aliaga's chance of winning Peru's 2026 presidential election at 43%. This probability, derived from a combined trading price of 43¢ on Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates the former Lima mayor is the frontrunner in a crowded field. However, the odds show the market views his victory as plausible but uncertain, far from a guaranteed outcome. The "Other" category collectively trades at 57%, reflecting a highly fragmented political environment where a challenger could still consolidate support. With $838,000 in volume, the market has attracted moderate liquidity, suggesting trader engagement but not overwhelming conviction on any single candidate.
López Aliaga's position stems from his established base as a conservative businessman and his performance in the 2021 election, where he finished third. His continued visibility as mayor of Lima provides a platform his rivals lack. The market pricing also reflects Peru's recent political instability, with six presidents in the last eight years. This volatility favors candidates perceived as political outsiders or strong administrators, a profile López Aliaga cultivates. However, his 43% ceiling reveals persistent concerns about his ability to expand his support beyond his core electorate in a potential runoff, where he has historically struggled.
The first major catalyst is the official closing of candidate lists and the start of the formal campaign period, which will clarify the final field. A strong, unified candidacy from the left or center could consolidate the anti-López Aliaga vote and rapidly depress his odds. Key figures like former president Pedro Castillo's daughter, who leads some polls for the first round, could reshape the race if she formally enters. Polls in late 2025 and early 2026 showing a clear top-two runoff scenario will cause significant market movement. The market's "Other" category will become more defined and volatile as these contenders emerge.
The 43% probability for López Aliaga is consistent across both Polymarket and Kalshi, showing no arbitrage opportunity. This price alignment across platforms indicates a consensus among informed traders. The lack of a meaningful spread suggests the available public information, including early polls and political analysis, is being priced in uniformly. The moderate liquidity on both exchanges points to a market that is watchful but waiting for new data before establishing stronger directional bets.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Peruvian presidential election will determine who leads Peru from 2026 to 2031. The election is scheduled for April 2026, with a potential runoff in June if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote. This election occurs during a period of intense political instability in Peru, which has seen six different presidents since 2016. The winner will inherit a nation grappling with economic stagnation, persistent social unrest, and a deeply fragmented Congress, making governance a significant challenge. Public trust in political institutions remains low following the impeachment and removal of President Pedro Castillo in 2022 and the subsequent protests that resulted in dozens of deaths. The election is viewed as a critical test for Peruvian democracy and its ability to produce stable leadership. Interest in the outcome extends beyond Peru's borders, as the country is a major global producer of copper, gold, and other minerals, and its political direction can impact global commodity markets and regional stability in South America.
Peru's modern political history is marked by volatility. The 1990 election of Alberto Fujimori began a decade of authoritarian rule that ended with his resignation in 2000 amid corruption scandals. The 2000s saw relative stability under Presidents Alejandro Toledo, Alan García, and Ollanta Humala, but this was followed by a renewed crisis. Since 2016, every elected president has faced corruption investigations, impeachment attempts, or early removal. Pedro Castillo, a left-wing outsider, was elected in 2021 but was impeached and arrested in December 2022 after attempting to dissolve Congress. His vice president, Dina Boluarte, succeeded him, but her government has been plagued by low legitimacy and violent protests. The 2021 election itself was highly polarized, with Keiko Fujimori narrowly losing the runoff to Castillo amid unsubstantiated claims of fraud. This pattern of instability sets the stage for 2026, where voters will again choose from a fragmented field of candidates representing traditional parties, personalist movements, and ideological extremes, all operating within a system where Congress and the presidency are frequently in conflict.
The outcome of the 2026 election will directly influence Peru's economic trajectory. The country is the world's second-largest copper producer, and mining accounts for about 10% of its GDP and 60% of its exports. A government perceived as unstable or hostile to investment could deter the foreign capital needed for major mining projects, affecting global copper supplies and Peru's fiscal health. Politically, a weak or illegitimate winner could exacerbate the ongoing constitutional crisis, potentially leading to further protests, congressional obstruction, and another cycle of early presidential turnover. Socially, the election is a referendum on how to address deep inequalities between Lima and the impoverished southern highlands, which were the epicenter of the 2022-2023 protests. The result will also signal whether Peruvians prefer a return to traditional political elites or continue seeking outsiders, a trend seen across Latin America. For the region, a destabilized Peru weakens South American cooperation on issues like migration, crime, and climate change.
As of mid-2024, the field for the 2026 election is beginning to take shape, though no candidate has officially declared. Potential candidates like Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga are actively building their profiles through their roles in Congress and the Lima mayor's office, respectively. President Dina Boluarte's government remains weak, surviving multiple congressional vacancy motions. The National Jury of Elections (JNE) is processing various political party registrations and internal elections, which will determine which organizations can legally present candidates. Public debate focuses on whether constitutional reforms, including possible re-election rules, will be passed before the election, though consensus in Congress is elusive.
The first round is scheduled for April 2026. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff election between the top two candidates will be held in June 2026.
No. The Peruvian Constitution prohibits the immediate re-election of the president. Since Dina Boluarte is serving out the 2021-2026 term, she is barred from being a candidate in the 2026 election.
A candidate must win more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round to be elected. If no one reaches this threshold, the top two candidates compete in a second-round runoff, where a simple majority determines the winner.
Key issues include political stability and institutional reform, economic growth and poverty reduction, crime and public security, and managing the social and environmental impacts of the large mining sector.
Voting is compulsory for all Peruvian citizens aged 18 to 70. Citizens aged 71 and older, and those living abroad, have voluntary voting. Voters must be registered on the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status (RENIEC).
If the president-elect dies, is permanently incapacitated, or is disqualified before inauguration, the line of succession falls to the first and second vice presidents elected on the same ticket. If that fails, Congress would choose a new president from among its members.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
25 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 40% | 3% |
 | 20% | 21% | 1% |
 | 14% | 18% | 4% |
 | 4% | 5% | 1% |
 | 4% | 4% | 0% |
 | 4% | 2% | 2% |
 | 2% | 1% | 1% |
 | 1% | 3% | 2% |
 | 2% | 1% | 1% |
 | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Different
Similar
In 2026 If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026, at the latest, is X then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:5
If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Rafael López Aliaga, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidenti
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:5
If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Alfonso López Chau, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidentia
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:5
If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Keiko Fujimori, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliati
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:5
If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Carlos Álvarez, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential el
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:5
If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Roberto Sánchez Palomino, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presi
No related news found
Polymarket
$810.47K
Kalshi
$39.13K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/QFzHHf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Peru Presidential Election Winner"></iframe>