Name: FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z

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FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner | PredictPedia

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2 markets tracked

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	Poly	48%
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	Poly	48%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 18, 2026 (215 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

A

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is annou"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $182
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

214d 13h remaining

Aug 18, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

48¢

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FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

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Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

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Events (1)

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (2)

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

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Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

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FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

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