This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$79.65K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Vol

$79.65K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $79.65K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $79.65K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	51%
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	39%
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	3%
Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	2%
Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	2%
Will Brent Barker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	2%
Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	1%
Will Deborah C. Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	1%
Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$79.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 19, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $79.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $67.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $22.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Brent Barker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Deborah C. Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $13.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics